Trader consensus favors Luis Antonio Revilla at 43% implied probability to win Bolivia's La Paz governorship, with Félix Patzi trailing closely at 34% in a fragmented field where indigenous and leftist candidates like René Yahuasi Calamani and Santos Quispe split votes, preventing separation. Recent polls from Ciesmori and other firms show Revilla's Sol.bo party leading urban voters on infrastructure promises, while Patzi leverages incumbency amid MAS infighting. The race stays tight due to Aymara highland turnout uncertainties and economic grievances over water access and roads. A late MAS endorsement, final debate missteps, or rural mobilization could widen gaps before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedLa Paz Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)
La Paz Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)
Luis Antonio Revilla 48.6%
Felix Patzi 32.8%
René Yahuasi Calamani 13.7%
Richard Andrés Gómez 6.9%
$21,738 Vol.
$21,738 Vol.
Luis Antonio Revilla
44%
Felix Patzi
33%
René Yahuasi Calamani
14%
Richard Andrés Gómez
7%
Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer
1%
Demetrio Villca
1%
Santos Quispe Quispe
6%
Gualberto Cusi
1%
Rafael Quispe Flores
<1%
Augusto Saturnino Oblitas
<1%
Germán Riveros
<1%
Orlando Callisaya
<1%
Clemente Gutiérrez
<1%
Fidel Chura
<1%
Leopoldo Richar Chui
<1%
Luis Antonio Revilla 48.6%
Felix Patzi 32.8%
René Yahuasi Calamani 13.7%
Richard Andrés Gómez 6.9%
$21,738 Vol.
$21,738 Vol.
Luis Antonio Revilla
44%
Felix Patzi
33%
René Yahuasi Calamani
14%
Richard Andrés Gómez
7%
Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer
1%
Demetrio Villca
1%
Santos Quispe Quispe
6%
Gualberto Cusi
1%
Rafael Quispe Flores
<1%
Augusto Saturnino Oblitas
<1%
Germán Riveros
<1%
Orlando Callisaya
<1%
Clemente Gutiérrez
<1%
Fidel Chura
<1%
Leopoldo Richar Chui
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Market Opened: Jan 20, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Luis Antonio Revilla at 43% implied probability to win Bolivia's La Paz governorship, with Félix Patzi trailing closely at 34% in a fragmented field where indigenous and leftist candidates like René Yahuasi Calamani and Santos Quispe split votes, preventing separation. Recent polls from Ciesmori and other firms show Revilla's Sol.bo party leading urban voters on infrastructure promises, while Patzi leverages incumbency amid MAS infighting. The race stays tight due to Aymara highland turnout uncertainties and economic grievances over water access and roads. A late MAS endorsement, final debate missteps, or rural mobilization could widen gaps before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions