Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to Anthropic retaining the #1 AI model on LMArena's Text Arena (Style Control On) leaderboard by April 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's late-March release that vaulted it to the top in overall text performance and coding benchmarks, dominating rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5.4. Anthropic models occupy multiple top-10 spots, bolstered by recent tests of the more advanced Claude Mythos, which promises gains in reasoning and cybersecurity. Lower odds for xAI (2.3%), OpenAI (2.1%), and Chinese contenders like DeepSeek reflect their trailing positions and lack of imminent superior releases, though the compressed timeline to resolution heightens sensitivity to surprise announcements in this competitive large language model race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 90%
Google 3.6%
xAI 2.3%
OpenAI 2.1%
$869,880 Vol.
$869,880 Vol.

Anthropic
90%

4%

xAI
2%

OpenAI
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Moonshot
1%

ByteDance
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 90%
Google 3.6%
xAI 2.3%
OpenAI 2.1%
$869,880 Vol.
$869,880 Vol.

Anthropic
90%

4%

xAI
2%

OpenAI
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Moonshot
1%

ByteDance
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to Anthropic retaining the #1 AI model on LMArena's Text Arena (Style Control On) leaderboard by April 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's late-March release that vaulted it to the top in overall text performance and coding benchmarks, dominating rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5.4. Anthropic models occupy multiple top-10 spots, bolstered by recent tests of the more advanced Claude Mythos, which promises gains in reasoning and cybersecurity. Lower odds for xAI (2.3%), OpenAI (2.1%), and Chinese contenders like DeepSeek reflect their trailing positions and lack of imminent superior releases, though the compressed timeline to resolution heightens sensitivity to surprise announcements in this competitive large language model race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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