SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap following its confidential SEC filing on April 1 for a potential June listing, targeting a record $1.75 trillion-plus valuation and up to $75 billion raise—far eclipsing rivals. The blockbuster merger with Elon Musk's xAI integrates orbital computing ambitions and AI capabilities into SpaceX's Starlink-driven revenue growth, fueling optimism amid surging demand for space infrastructure. xAI retains 25.5% odds from pre-merger standalone hype and private market strength, while Anthropic (4.4%) and OpenAI (4.3%) trail due to later timelines—October or year-end—and lower projected valuations around $380 billion. Traders eye SpaceX's S-1 details and roadshow for final catalysts, though regulatory scrutiny or market volatility could introduce delays.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpaceX 90%
Anthropic 4.3%
OpenAI 4.3%
Discord <1%
$1,641,219 Vol.
$1,641,219 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
90%
Anthropic
4%
OpenAI
4%
Discord
1%
Kraken
1%
Stripe
<1%
Databricks
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Revolut
<1%
SpaceX 90%
Anthropic 4.3%
OpenAI 4.3%
Discord <1%
$1,641,219 Vol.
$1,641,219 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$183,273 Vol.
90%
Anthropic
$344,020 Vol.
4%
OpenAI
$297,740 Vol.
4%
Discord
$68,630 Vol.
1%
Kraken
$375,385 Vol.
1%
Stripe
$39,133 Vol.
<1%
Databricks
$68,680 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$85,053 Vol.
<1%
Waymo
$45,674 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$54,000 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$53,454 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$26,178 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap following its confidential SEC filing on April 1 for a potential June listing, targeting a record $1.75 trillion-plus valuation and up to $75 billion raise—far eclipsing rivals. The blockbuster merger with Elon Musk's xAI integrates orbital computing ambitions and AI capabilities into SpaceX's Starlink-driven revenue growth, fueling optimism amid surging demand for space infrastructure. xAI retains 25.5% odds from pre-merger standalone hype and private market strength, while Anthropic (4.4%) and OpenAI (4.3%) trail due to later timelines—October or year-end—and lower projected valuations around $380 billion. Traders eye SpaceX's S-1 details and roadshow for final catalysts, though regulatory scrutiny or market volatility could introduce delays.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$1,641,219End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap following its confidential SEC filing on April 1 for a potential June listing, targeting a record $1.75 trillion-plus valuation and up to $75 billion raise—far eclipsing rivals. The blockbuster merger with Elon Musk's xAI integrates orbital computing ambitions and AI capabilities into SpaceX's Starlink-driven revenue growth, fueling optimism amid surging demand for space infrastructure. xAI retains 25.5% odds from pre-merger standalone hype and private market strength, while Anthropic (4.4%) and OpenAI (4.3%) trail due to later timelines—October or year-end—and lower projected valuations around $380 billion. Traders eye SpaceX's S-1 details and roadshow for final catalysts, though regulatory scrutiny or market volatility could introduce delays.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,641,219End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap following its confidential SEC filing on April 1 for a potential June listing, targeting a record $1.75 trillion-plus valuation and up to $75 billion raise—far eclipsing rivals. The blockbuster merger with Elon Musk's xAI integrates orbital computing ambitions and AI capabilities into SpaceX's Starlink-driven revenue growth, fueling optimism amid surging demand for space infrastructure. xAI retains 25.5% odds from pre-merger standalone hype and private market strength, while Anthropic (4.4%) and OpenAI (4.3%) trail due to later timelines—October or year-end—and lower projected valuations around $380 billion. Traders eye SpaceX's S-1 details and roadshow for final catalysts, though regulatory scrutiny or market volatility could introduce delays.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions