Polymarket traders price a 37.5% implied probability on China’s 2026 annual CPI inflation falling in the 0.6–1.0% range, reflecting March 2026 year-over-year CPI easing to 1.0%—below the 1.2% consensus—from February’s 1.3% three-year high driven by Lunar New Year spending. This consensus aligns with economist forecasts like Goldman Sachs’ 0.8% full-year projection and Focus Economics’ 0.6% median, amid persistent deflation risks from weak consumer demand, property sector drag, and excess capacity, despite PPI turning positive at 0.5% YoY for the first time since 2022 on higher global oil prices. Beijing’s 4.5–5% GDP target and vows for proactive stimulus temper upside, with April CPI due late May as the next catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedChina Annual Inflation 2026
China Annual Inflation 2026
0.6 – 1.0% 31%
1.1 – 1.5% 16%
2.5%+ 13.3%
0.1 – 0.5% 12%
$34,243 Vol.
$34,243 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<-1.0%
4%
-0.9 – -0.5%
<1%
-0.4 – 0.0%
1%
0.1 – 0.5%
12%
0.6 – 1.0%
38%
1.1 – 1.5%
16%
1.6 – 2.0%
6%
2.0-2.4%
6%
2.5%+
13%
0.6 – 1.0% 31%
1.1 – 1.5% 16%
2.5%+ 13.3%
0.1 – 0.5% 12%
$34,243 Vol.
$34,243 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<-1.0%
$17,060 Vol.
4%
-0.9 – -0.5%
$1,926 Vol.
<1%
-0.4 – 0.0%
$1,984 Vol.
1%
0.1 – 0.5%
$2,013 Vol.
12%
0.6 – 1.0%
$2,236 Vol.
38%
1.1 – 1.5%
$2,536 Vol.
16%
1.6 – 2.0%
$2,683 Vol.
6%
2.0-2.4%
$1,808 Vol.
6%
2.5%+
$1,997 Vol.
13%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Polymarket traders price a 37.5% implied probability on China’s 2026 annual CPI inflation falling in the 0.6–1.0% range, reflecting March 2026 year-over-year CPI easing to 1.0%—below the 1.2% consensus—from February’s 1.3% three-year high driven by Lunar New Year spending. This consensus aligns with economist forecasts like Goldman Sachs’ 0.8% full-year projection and Focus Economics’ 0.6% median, amid persistent deflation risks from weak consumer demand, property sector drag, and excess capacity, despite PPI turning positive at 0.5% YoY for the first time since 2022 on higher global oil prices. Beijing’s 4.5–5% GDP target and vows for proactive stimulus temper upside, with April CPI due late May as the next catalyst.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Volume
$34,243End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Polymarket traders price a 37.5% implied probability on China’s 2026 annual CPI inflation falling in the 0.6–1.0% range, reflecting March 2026 year-over-year CPI easing to 1.0%—below the 1.2% consensus—from February’s 1.3% three-year high driven by Lunar New Year spending. This consensus aligns with economist forecasts like Goldman Sachs’ 0.8% full-year projection and Focus Economics’ 0.6% median, amid persistent deflation risks from weak consumer demand, property sector drag, and excess capacity, despite PPI turning positive at 0.5% YoY for the first time since 2022 on higher global oil prices. Beijing’s 4.5–5% GDP target and vows for proactive stimulus temper upside, with April CPI due late May as the next catalyst.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Volume
$34,243End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 37.5% implied probability on China’s 2026 annual CPI inflation falling in the 0.6–1.0% range, reflecting March 2026 year-over-year CPI easing to 1.0%—below the 1.2% consensus—from February’s 1.3% three-year high driven by Lunar New Year spending. This consensus aligns with economist forecasts like Goldman Sachs’ 0.8% full-year projection and Focus Economics’ 0.6% median, amid persistent deflation risks from weak consumer demand, property sector drag, and excess capacity, despite PPI turning positive at 0.5% YoY for the first time since 2022 on higher global oil prices. Beijing’s 4.5–5% GDP target and vows for proactive stimulus temper upside, with April CPI due late May as the next catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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