Trader consensus for a US sovereign default by 2027 remains overwhelmingly against at 95%, driven by historical precedent—the government has raised or suspended the debt limit 78 times since 1960 without missing payments—and bipartisan incentives to avert economic catastrophe from disrupted Treasury obligations. Treasury's extraordinary measures, recently extended after the 2023 suspension expired January 1, 2025, provide months of runway, with projections indicating no breach until mid-2025 at earliest. Fiscal hawks' push for spending restraint amid rising deficits adds tension, but brinkmanship has always yielded resolutions. Realistic tail risks include an unresolved debt ceiling impasse amid extreme polarization or unforeseen fiscal shocks like deep recession, though markets price these as low-probability events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$14,255 Vol.
$14,255 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$14,255 Vol.
$14,255 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$14,255End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$14,255End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus for a US sovereign default by 2027 remains overwhelmingly against at 95%, driven by historical precedent—the government has raised or suspended the debt limit 78 times since 1960 without missing payments—and bipartisan incentives to avert economic catastrophe from disrupted Treasury obligations. Treasury's extraordinary measures, recently extended after the 2023 suspension expired January 1, 2025, provide months of runway, with projections indicating no breach until mid-2025 at earliest. Fiscal hawks' push for spending restraint amid rising deficits adds tension, but brinkmanship has always yielded resolutions. Realistic tail risks include an unresolved debt ceiling impasse amid extreme polarization or unforeseen fiscal shocks like deep recession, though markets price these as low-probability events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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