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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Air Force One aircraft is put into official service by the US Air Force between February 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Air Force One" refers to any aircraft built to replace one or both of the VC-25s presently used as the primary presidential aircrafts.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

New Air Force One in 2025?

President Donald Trump has acquired a $400 million luxury Boeing 747, previously owned by Qatar, to serve as a temporary Air Force One while awaiting upgrades to the original aircraft. The U.S. Air Force is also pushing to accelerate delivery of a redesigned Air Force One before 2029, aligning with Trump's demands for a new jet.

Qatar Offers Trump Jet

Trump is purchasing a $400M jet to serve as a temporary Air Force One while waiting for the original Air Force One to be upgraded. He’s spending more to upgrade his latest purchase.

But you need to be ok with fewer toys! 

#DemsUnited #wtpBlueResists https://t.co/HSwU8uoy4j

BREAKING: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth cancels Israel trip to join Trump on Air Force One

President Trump is getting a new Air Force One.

Boeing may deliver the new Air Force One jets by 2027, two years earlier than projected.

"We are absolutely committed to delivering an aircraft with the communications and defensive capabilities required for presidential https://t.co/qhpnO7LGiJ

This Boeing 747-8KB BBJ previously used by King of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim is now procured by #Trump to be turned into his Air Force One aircraft by the L3Harris. I photographed it when Tamim and his family used it for their trips to various European capital cities. My photos 👇 https://t.co/pewbO5wXzB

US Air Force is pushing to speed up the delivery of new Air Force One as Trump pushes for redesigned aircraft before 2029.

https://t.co/QrcKrUmLu5

President Donald Trump has accepted a luxury Boeing 747-8 jet from Qatar as a temporary Air Force One, sparking controversy over national security and ethical concerns. Critics argue this move undermines American values and poses potential risks, while supporters highlight the cost-saving aspect amidst delays in Boeing's delivery of a new fleet.

Trump Accepts Qatar Jet

President Trump has accepted this luxury 747 from Qatar for use as Air Force One.

He got this beast for the US for free.

Democrats are complaining.

https://t.co/OJwceNcKzY

.@POTUS: "We're very disappointed that it's taking Boeing so long to build a new Air Force One. We have an Air Force One that is 40 years old... if we can get a 747 as a contribution to our Defense Department to use during a couple of years while they're building the other ones, https://t.co/YVnquDUcyI

Nothing about getting Air Force One from a foreign government feels right.  It may be legal, but I wouldn’t do it. 

Air Force One should be American through and through. It shouldn’t pass through foreign hands and it shouldn’t be a gift from a King.

Don’t do it.

Trump’s new Air Force One, a gift (bribe) from a foreign country (Qatar) that funds Hamas. Where’s the outrage you spineless Republican cowards? 😡 https://t.co/ZzkXGAxUac

🚨 NOW: President Trump boards Air Force One on the way to Saudi Arabia for his FIRST trip to the Middle East as 47.

He’ll also he visiting Qatar and the UAE this week.

Pray for President Trump’s safety abroad 🙏🏻  https://t.co/88gxe2tLVt

BOEING CAN'T BUILD A NEW AIR FORCE ONE.

That's the buried lede. It's the central problem.

Using a Qatar-gifted plane as Air Force One is a national security nightmare and utter embarrassment.

🚨 Breaking: First photo of the new Air Force One gifted to Trump 👇

Beware of Qataris bearing gifts. https://t.co/ElalbIUGPR

This is the new Air Force One that Trump was able to get free of charge — the “palace of the sky”

Thing is incredible. No American President should be flying on an aircraft as old as the current AF1. https://t.co/gmCdQTU9Zp

Air Force One MUST be Built in America and By America.

Who else agrees? https://t.co/w37RUf4fBH

Qatar paid and housed Hamas leadership for years and now we are taking a new Air Force One from them?

Trump’s first misstep… https://t.co/dfFSCq8uBj

Democrats like Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) claim a Qatar Boeing 747-8 jet for Air Force One violates the Foreign Emoluments Clause. This ignores the deal’s structure.
The jet is offered to the U.S. Air Force, not Trump personally, for official use.

The White House and DOJ say this https://t.co/0KSrNETf2u

Donald Trump confirma que Qatar le va a regalar un Boeing 747 con configuración interior de  "super-lujo". 

Ese avión será el nuevo Air Force One. 

Un 747 es muy caro. Pero comprarte a un presidente de EEUU nunca había salido tan barato. https://t.co/dWMhF6CQX8

Out of curiosity, how long do you think it will take L3Harris to gut a 747, upgrade avionics, install an executive-level medical bay, and equip it with the myriad communications equipment and defensive countermeasures that Air Force One requires?

I’d guess 2-3 years, minimum. https://t.co/v0WWoX2Rtv

"You're ABC fake news, right? – You should be embarrassed asking that question."

President Trump claps back at a reporter questioning him on Qatar’s offer to gift a jumbo jet to be used for Air Force One. https://t.co/3CdCqCi0qi

Air Force One, Brought to You by Qatar.

Editorial today in @TheFP about this $400 million "gift" and the Trump family business.

https://t.co/JfdSOjnvI1

An American President is going to turn a foreign luxury plane from Qatar into Air Force One. And then he’s going to keep the $400 million gift after he leaves office. It’s a disgrace to our country and a potential national security risk. Our Oversight Committee must investigate.

Trump plans to accept luxury Boeing 747 gift from Qatar to use as Air Force One

https://t.co/oxI2eIxJNN https://t.co/TKePjpzHzN

Politics aside,how can the Qatar Boeing 747 be used as an interim Air Force One? https://t.co/tHThI9OrUO

BREAKING: Trump issues a new statement on potentially accepting a free, massive Boeing jet for a temporary Air Force One from Qatar.

He said there is a huge discrepancy right now with the current AF1 and other countries' planes, making America look way behind.

"I think this is https://t.co/YSM4264Eb4

Potential Charges for Dem Reps, New Air Force One Reporting, Pope's First Message

AM Update for May 12 - featuring guest hosts Yates, Yardley, and Thatcher: https://t.co/fVS0yx0Rbq

AMERICA FIRST! Trump reportedly secured a luxury 747 from Qatar at ZERO COST to taxpayers for use as Air Force One!

Meanwhile, Biden wasted BILLIONS on new planes with endless delays.

THE ART OF THE DEAL!
https://t.co/wvucFIVLmW

Do you support Trump accepting a 747 from Qatar for use as Air Force One? https://t.co/JD0wRjMQ4l

Trump defends Qatar jumbo jet offer as troubled Boeing fails to deliver new Air Force One fleet https://t.co/ZCX2OEEIZy

Donald Trump is once again trying to defend accepting bribes from foreign figures.

In an angry post on Truth Social Sunday night, Trump claimed he’d done nothing wrong by accepting a $400 luxury jet from the Qatari royal family to replace Air Force One. 
https://t.co/D3LDzSx9A0

NEW from @MarcACaputo: The U.S. and Qatar were bargaining over the price for a "palace in the sky" Boeing 747-8 to be used as the new Air Force One — and Qatar "came back and said: 'We'll just gift it. It's OK, '" according to a top source. https://t.co/uZ2Y3XYDng

Take a tour of the luxury Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet that the Qatar royal family is reportedly planning to give Trump to use as Air Force One. https://t.co/lIBS2sWm0F

President Donald Trump is embroiled in controversy over a $400 million luxury jet from Qatar, intended for use as Air Force One, with the deal not yet finalized due to legal and ethical concerns. Critics label it as potential corruption, citing conflicts of interest and national security risks, while the administration's claims of it being a gift to America are under scrutiny.

Trump's Qatar Jet Controversy

Breaking news: Qatar has asked the U.S. to clarify that the pending transfer of a luxury jetliner President Trump wants for Air Force One was initiated by the administration and that Qatar was not responsible for any future transfers, officials said. https://t.co/aI39BHbbkW

The new 747s from Boeing are set to be delivered in 2027—just two years from now. There’s zero chance this Qatar plane is ready by then.

So let’s be real: taxpayers are going to spend $1 billion retrofitting a jet that will never serve as Air Force One. It’ll just sit in Trump’s https://t.co/btIR02OYQT

🚨 BREAKING REBONDISSEMENT🚨
L'affaire de l'avion "gratuit offert par le Qatar "pour Air Force One n'est pas réglée : on apprend que l’accord n’est ni finalisé ni légalement clair.
➡️ Il semble qu'au final, ce serait un achat des US, qui a été maquillé en "don", suscitant des

NEW: We're requesting records from DOJ about President Trump's Qatari jet scheme, including the memo signing off on it and ethics guidance on AG Pam Bondi's involvement.

Given Bondi's work as a foreign agent of Qatar, the public should see the records. https://t.co/CByalOe8Xy

Trump calls it a “gift to America.” I call it what it is: a $400 million bribe disguised as a jet, that he keeps.  Paid for by Qatar and US taxpayers, owned by Trump.  Corruption at 35,000 feet: (full video in reply) https://t.co/GumS0eArOD

Scoop: Trump’s AF1 deal with Qatar has not been finalized despite the administration's claims. Qatar is asking the US to clarify that the deal for the luxury jet was initiated by the US and that Qatar is not responsible for any future transfers of the plane https://t.co/58WIYTN3uT

It was Trump who stuck up Qatar to deliver a luxury jet for his personal post-presidential use and that of his heirs, extortion not bribery https://t.co/nJXAyyZes2

Between the Qatar jet scheme and crypto dinner, the Trump administration is making clear that avoiding conflicts of interest and corruption is not a priority. We won't let that fly.
https://t.co/BwzgkDCtFs

The irony? He said this in Qatar, the country that gifted his father a $400 million jet, where the Trump Org is building a luxury golf resort, and which was one of the first foreign countries Trump visited after taking office https://t.co/IH28nBuMbm

U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) gets into a spat with her constituents during a town hall while defending President Donald Trump accepting a luxury jet from Qatar.

"When you look at what happened with that plane, everything was followed ethically." https://t.co/SVcVLcLvkp

On PBS NewsHour, CREW's President Noah Bookbinder calls out President Trump's corrupt Qatari jet scheme. 

Trump’s plan to accept a $400 million luxury jet from Qatar for use as Air Force 1 raises serious corruption and national security risks. https://t.co/sIkF3zgESN

BREAKING: Despite previous claims from the Department of Defense that the United States has officially accepted the luxury Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet from Qatar, the U.S. and Qatar have not yet finalized the details of the agreement, sources said. https://t.co/cbSaZNF83A

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


French election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Virginia in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any U.S. federal agency definitively states that a man-made device or weapon exists that is responsible for, or capable of causing, Havana Syndrome or Havana Syndrome-like symptoms by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US confirms Havana Syndrome–causing device by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product. Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Apple.

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a military strike against the U.S. military, inclusive of all U.S. military ships, planes, bases and other infrastructure, between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Iranian missile, drone, or other strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. Strikes on U.S. military unmanned aerial vehicles/projectiles and U.S. commercial/civilian ships will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on the U.S. military by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S. and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible may also be used.

Iran strike on US military by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US x China Military clash before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between January 6 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. 

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. 

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 2, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Martin Luther King" in January?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?

Donald Trump is expected to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address in late January or early February. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled delivery of the 2026 State of the Union address. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

New Air Force One in 2025?

Market Context

New Air Force One in 2025?

Rules

New Air Force One in 2025?

Market Context

New Air Force One in 2025?

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