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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un is removed from power for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Kim Jong Un will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of North Korea within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Kim Jong Un Out

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un is removed from power for any length of time between January 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Kim Jong Un will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of North Korea within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jang Dong-hyeok ceases to be the Leader of the People Power Party (PPP) for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Jang Dong-hyeok’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the People Power Party or the government of South Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, including but not limited to allegations of stock price manipulation, bribery, election interference, abuse of power, or criminal acts related to Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration and related subsequent actions, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through March 31, 2026 or until Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Kim Keon Hee be sentenced to prison by March 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran
- Khamenei leaves Iran

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran:
This market will resolve to "No" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time during this market’s above-specified time frame. Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Khamenei leaves Iran:
This market will resolve to "No" if it is confirmed that Ali Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time during this market’s above-specified time frame. In cases where Ali Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "No". If Ali Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for charges related to the 2024 South Korean political crisis, including but not limited to allegations of failure to promulgate legislation, obstruction of constitutional processes, or other criminal acts stemming from his actions as Acting President and Prime Minister by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through 2026 regardless of whether Han Duck-soo's initial sentencing includes prison.  Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Han Duck-soo be sentenced to prison before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan), Lai Ching-te, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President  Lai Ching-te will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Taiwan within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Félix Tshisekedi, is removed from power for any length of time between this market’s creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

President Félix Tshisekedi will be considered removed from power if he resigns, is detained, otherwise loses his position (including by stepping down following a lost election), or is prevented from fulfilling the duties of the presidency within this market’s timeframe.

Reporting of a lost election without a de facto loss of presidential position or power will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republic of the Congo's president, Denis Sassou Nguesso, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Denis Sassou Nguesso will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position (e.g. when he steps down in consequence of a lost election) or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of the Republic of the Congo within this market's timeframe.

Reporting of a lost election without a de facto loss of presidential position or power will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kristi Noem ceases to be the Secretary of Homeland Security for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Noem's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kristi Noem out by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Masoud Pezeshkian will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as President, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between December 16, 2025 and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwan's Premier, Cho Jung-tai, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Premier Cho Jung-tai will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as Premier, or is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Premier within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Cook ceases to be CEO of Apple for any length of time between November 20, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Tim Cook's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Apple and/or Tim Cook, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?

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Market Context

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?

Rules

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?

Order Book

Market Context

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?

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