Kash Patel out by...?

Politics·Trump

Kash Patel out by...?

NEW

March 31

$0 Vol.

June 30

$0 Vol.

11%

$0.00 Vol.

March 31

$0 Vol.

June 30

$0 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kash Patel's nomination to lead the FBI, announced by President-elect Trump in late November 2024, hinges on Senate confirmation amid Republican control but vocal reservations from senators like Susan Collins and Thom Tillis over his past criticisms of the bureau. Trader consensus reflects optimism for approval given the GOP majority, yet prices short timelines for potential ouster due to Patel's loyalty-driven reform agenda clashing with institutional norms and Democratic opposition. Recent Trump defenses and nominee vetting delays have steadied odds, while confirmation hearings—likely in early January 2025 post-Senate convening—represent the pivotal catalyst that could solidify or derail his path, influencing bets on removal by mid-2025 or later.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 18, 2026, 2:34 AM UTC

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Kash Patel out by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30" at 11%, followed by "March 31" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Kash Patel out by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 23, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Kash Patel out by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Kash Patel out by...?" is "June 30" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 31" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Kash Patel out by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Kash Patel out by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “Kash Patel out by...?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Kash Patel out by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 11¢ for "June 30" in the "Kash Patel out by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 11% chance that "June 30" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 11¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 89¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

This market will resolve when the event's official outcome is determined. Check the "Rules" section on this page for the specific resolution criteria and timing.

The "Kash Patel out by...?" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Kash Patel out by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Kash Patel out by...?

Kash Patel out by...?

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