Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Elon Musk posting 420-439 times during March 17-24, 2026, at 22.1% implied probability, with nearby ranges like 400-419 (17.6%) and 440-459 (14.5%) keeping the contest tight due to his variable historical X posting volumes—typically 300-500 per week, spiking over 100 daily amid Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, or public controversies. Recent sustained high activity, averaging 50-70 posts daily since late 2024 political engagements, anchors expectations around 400-450, but uncertainty over 2026 midterms buildup or regulatory news leaves room for swings. Catalysts like major announcements or viral events could push toward 500+ or below 400, widening separation in this skin-in-the-game forecast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedElon Musk # tweets March 17 - March 24, 2026?
Elon Musk # tweets March 17 - March 24, 2026?
420-439 21.9%
400-419 18.3%
440-459 14.1%
380-399 13.8%
$6,769,405 Vol.
$6,769,405 Vol.
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
1%
340-359
3%
360-379
10%
380-399
14%
400-419
18%
420-439
22%
440-459
14%
460-479
11%
480-499
5%
500-519
2%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
420-439 21.9%
400-419 18.3%
440-459 14.1%
380-399 13.8%
$6,769,405 Vol.
$6,769,405 Vol.
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
1%
340-359
3%
360-379
10%
380-399
14%
400-419
18%
420-439
22%
440-459
14%
460-479
11%
480-499
5%
500-519
2%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Elon Musk posting 420-439 times during March 17-24, 2026, at 22.1% implied probability, with nearby ranges like 400-419 (17.6%) and 440-459 (14.5%) keeping the contest tight due to his variable historical X posting volumes—typically 300-500 per week, spiking over 100 daily amid Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, or public controversies. Recent sustained high activity, averaging 50-70 posts daily since late 2024 political engagements, anchors expectations around 400-450, but uncertainty over 2026 midterms buildup or regulatory news leaves room for swings. Catalysts like major announcements or viral events could push toward 500+ or below 400, widening separation in this skin-in-the-game forecast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
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