Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs Elon Musk's April 2026 tweet count in the 1280-1519 range, with 1400-1439 tweets leading at 6% implied probability, reflecting his consistent high-volume posting patterns averaging 1200-1800 monthly in 2024 amid political fervor and X platform ownership. Recent surges—over 2,000 in election-heavy November 2024—bolster mid-1400s bets, but dips during Tesla earnings or xAI focus temper extremes. Competitive dynamics hinge on unpredictable catalysts like SpaceX launches or regulatory battles, which historically spike activity 20-30%, versus quieter periods yielding under 1,000; low tails (<1000 or 2000+) signal skepticism of sustained hyperactivity two years out.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated1400-1439 5.9%
1280-1319 5.7%
1360-1399 5.7%
1440-1479 5.3%
$3,174,707 Vol.
$3,174,707 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
1%
740-759
1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
1%
800-839
1%
840-879
1%
880-919
2%
920-959
2%
960-999
3%
1000-1039
2%
1040-1079
3%
1080-1119
3%
1120-1159
3%
1160-1199
5%
1200-1239
4%
1240-1279
5%
1280-1319
6%
1320-1359
5%
1360-1399
6%
1400-1439
6%
1440-1479
5%
1480-1519
4%
1520-1559
4%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
4%
1680-1759
3%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
1%
1400-1439 5.9%
1280-1319 5.7%
1360-1399 5.7%
1440-1479 5.3%
$3,174,707 Vol.
$3,174,707 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
1%
740-759
1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
1%
800-839
1%
840-879
1%
880-919
2%
920-959
2%
960-999
3%
1000-1039
2%
1040-1079
3%
1080-1119
3%
1120-1159
3%
1160-1199
5%
1200-1239
4%
1240-1279
5%
1280-1319
6%
1320-1359
5%
1360-1399
6%
1400-1439
6%
1440-1479
5%
1480-1519
4%
1520-1559
4%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
4%
1680-1759
3%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs Elon Musk's April 2026 tweet count in the 1280-1519 range, with 1400-1439 tweets leading at 6% implied probability, reflecting his consistent high-volume posting patterns averaging 1200-1800 monthly in 2024 amid political fervor and X platform ownership. Recent surges—over 2,000 in election-heavy November 2024—bolster mid-1400s bets, but dips during Tesla earnings or xAI focus temper extremes. Competitive dynamics hinge on unpredictable catalysts like SpaceX launches or regulatory battles, which historically spike activity 20-30%, versus quieter periods yielding under 1,000; low tails (<1000 or 2000+) signal skepticism of sustained hyperactivity two years out.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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