Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% to retain California's 16th Congressional District, driven by incumbent Rep. Sam Liccardo's strong position in the safely Democratic Silicon Valley seat, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. Liccardo, who won a 2024 Democrat-vs-Democrat general election matchup with 58.2%, boasts $2 million in cash-on-hand as of late March, dwarfing challengers including Republicans Kevin Johnson and Peter Soule ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. The district's partisan lean—Kamala Harris won 72% in 2024—bolsters this edge, with no recent polling or developments shifting dynamics. Upsets remain possible via a GOP scandal-free surge, primary consolidation behind a top fundraiser, or national Republican midterm tailwinds, though historical incumbent reelection rates exceed 90% in such leans.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$76,170 거래량
$76,170 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
93%
공화당
7%
$76,170 거래량
$76,170 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$48,949 거래량
93%
공화당
$27,220 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% to retain California's 16th Congressional District, driven by incumbent Rep. Sam Liccardo's strong position in the safely Democratic Silicon Valley seat, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. Liccardo, who won a 2024 Democrat-vs-Democrat general election matchup with 58.2%, boasts $2 million in cash-on-hand as of late March, dwarfing challengers including Republicans Kevin Johnson and Peter Soule ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. The district's partisan lean—Kamala Harris won 72% in 2024—bolsters this edge, with no recent polling or developments shifting dynamics. Upsets remain possible via a GOP scandal-free surge, primary consolidation behind a top fundraiser, or national Republican midterm tailwinds, though historical incumbent reelection rates exceed 90% in such leans.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$76,170종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% to retain California's 16th Congressional District, driven by incumbent Rep. Sam Liccardo's strong position in the safely Democratic Silicon Valley seat, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. Liccardo, who won a 2024 Democrat-vs-Democrat general election matchup with 58.2%, boasts $2 million in cash-on-hand as of late March, dwarfing challengers including Republicans Kevin Johnson and Peter Soule ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. The district's partisan lean—Kamala Harris won 72% in 2024—bolsters this edge, with no recent polling or developments shifting dynamics. Upsets remain possible via a GOP scandal-free surge, primary consolidation behind a top fundraiser, or national Republican midterm tailwinds, though historical incumbent reelection rates exceed 90% in such leans.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$76,170종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% to retain California's 16th Congressional District, driven by incumbent Rep. Sam Liccardo's strong position in the safely Democratic Silicon Valley seat, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. Liccardo, who won a 2024 Democrat-vs-Democrat general election matchup with 58.2%, boasts $2 million in cash-on-hand as of late March, dwarfing challengers including Republicans Kevin Johnson and Peter Soule ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. The district's partisan lean—Kamala Harris won 72% in 2024—bolsters this edge, with no recent polling or developments shifting dynamics. Upsets remain possible via a GOP scandal-free surge, primary consolidation behind a top fundraiser, or national Republican midterm tailwinds, though historical incumbent reelection rates exceed 90% in such leans.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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