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地政学·イスラエル

イスラエルは2026年にイラン大使館を再開しますか？

Market icon
地政学·イスラエル

イスラエルは2026年にイラン大使館を再開しますか？

はい

13% chance
Polymarket

$17,843 Vol.

はい

13% chance
Polymarket

$17,843 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and industrial sites, including the Arak heavy-water plant as recently as March 27, 2026, underscore the acute escalation in hostilities since the war began with surprise attacks on February 28. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel and US regional assets, amid reports of internal regime pressures and calls from Israeli officials for an end to European diplomacy with Tehran. No diplomatic channels exist between Israel and Iran, severed since the 1979 revolution, and current military confrontation eliminates any pathway for embassy reopening in 2026. Traders' 87.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this entrenched animosity and lack of de-escalation signals, though regime instability could theoretically shift dynamics.

Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and industrial sites, including the Arak heavy-water plant as recently as March 27, 2026, underscore the acute escalation in hostilities since the war began with surprise attacks on February 28. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel and US regional assets, amid reports of internal regime pressures and calls from Israeli officials for an end to European diplomacy with Tehran. No diplomatic channels exist between Israel and Iran, severed since the 1979 revolution, and current military confrontation eliminates any pathway for embassy reopening in 2026. Traders' 87.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this entrenched animosity and lack of de-escalation signals, though regime instability could theoretically shift dynamics.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and industrial sites, including the Arak heavy-water plant as recently as March 27, 2026, underscore the acute escalation in hostilities since the war began with surprise attacks on February 28. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel and US regional assets, amid reports of internal regime pressures and calls from Israeli officials for an end to European diplomacy with Tehran. No diplomatic channels exist between Israel and Iran, severed since the 1979 revolution, and current military confrontation eliminates any pathway for embassy reopening in 2026. Traders' 87.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this entrenched animosity and lack of de-escalation signals, though regime instability could theoretically shift dynamics.

Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and industrial sites, including the Arak heavy-water plant as recently as March 27, 2026, underscore the acute escalation in hostilities since the war began with surprise attacks on February 28. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel and US regional assets, amid reports of internal regime pressures and calls from Israeli officials for an end to European diplomacy with Tehran. No diplomatic channels exist between Israel and Iran, severed since the 1979 revolution, and current military confrontation eliminates any pathway for embassy reopening in 2026. Traders' 87.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this entrenched animosity and lack of de-escalation signals, though regime instability could theoretically shift dynamics.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「イスラエルは2026年にイラン大使館を再開しますか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「イスラエルは2026年にイランで大使館を再開しますか？」で13%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、13¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に13%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「イスラエルは2026年にイラン大使館を再開しますか？」は$17.8Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 6, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「イスラエルは2026年にイラン大使館を再開しますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「イスラエルは2026年にイラン大使館を再開しますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「イスラエルは2026年にイランで大使館を再開しますか？」で13%であり、市場がこの結果に13%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

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