Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced on March 2 a ban on Hezbollah's military activities and directed the army to use all means to seize weapons north of the Litani River, following Hezbollah rocket strikes on Israel that breached the November 2024 ceasefire. This marks unprecedented state pressure on the Iran-backed group amid U.S. and Israeli demands, with the army recently confiscating a Hezbollah rocket launcher. However, Hezbollah has rejected disarmament timelines, including a February government plan for a four-month second phase, insisting the ceasefire applies only south of the Litani. Fragile truce violations persist, including near-daily Israeli operations; traders monitor army enforcement, potential Israel-Lebanon talks, and UN Security Council sessions for escalation signals before any resolution deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$924,021 Vol.
2026/03/31
12月31日
24%
$924,021 Vol.
12月31日
$17,429 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced on March 2 a ban on Hezbollah's military activities and directed the army to use all means to seize weapons north of the Litani River, following Hezbollah rocket strikes on Israel that breached the November 2024 ceasefire. This marks unprecedented state pressure on the Iran-backed group amid U.S. and Israeli demands, with the army recently confiscating a Hezbollah rocket launcher. However, Hezbollah has rejected disarmament timelines, including a February government plan for a four-month second phase, insisting the ceasefire applies only south of the Litani. Fragile truce violations persist, including near-daily Israeli operations; traders monitor army enforcement, potential Israel-Lebanon talks, and UN Security Council sessions for escalation signals before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
音量
$924,021終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced on March 2 a ban on Hezbollah's military activities and directed the army to use all means to seize weapons north of the Litani River, following Hezbollah rocket strikes on Israel that breached the November 2024 ceasefire. This marks unprecedented state pressure on the Iran-backed group amid U.S. and Israeli demands, with the army recently confiscating a Hezbollah rocket launcher. However, Hezbollah has rejected disarmament timelines, including a February government plan for a four-month second phase, insisting the ceasefire applies only south of the Litani. Fragile truce violations persist, including near-daily Israeli operations; traders monitor army enforcement, potential Israel-Lebanon talks, and UN Security Council sessions for escalation signals before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
音量
$924,021終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced on March 2 a ban on Hezbollah's military activities and directed the army to use all means to seize weapons north of the Litani River, following Hezbollah rocket strikes on Israel that breached the November 2024 ceasefire. This marks unprecedented state pressure on the Iran-backed group amid U.S. and Israeli demands, with the army recently confiscating a Hezbollah rocket launcher. However, Hezbollah has rejected disarmament timelines, including a February government plan for a four-month second phase, insisting the ceasefire applies only south of the Litani. Fragile truce violations persist, including near-daily Israeli operations; traders monitor army enforcement, potential Israel-Lebanon talks, and UN Security Council sessions for escalation signals before any resolution deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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