Jon Bonck's commanding 94.6% implied probability in the TX-38 Republican primary market reflects his dominant 47% first-place finish in the crowded March 3, 2026, primary for the open seat vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, advancing him to the May 26 runoff against Shelly deZevallos. Trump endorsement, recent backing from Rep. Guy Reschenthaler on March 30, Club for Growth support, and strong fundraising as a mortgage industry leader have solidified trader consensus on his momentum in this Houston-area Republican stronghold. While deZevallos trails at 1.9%, a late scandal, voter consolidation among Holdouts, or unexpected turnout shifts could challenge Bonck, though such barriers remain high with eight weeks until the runoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ジョン・ボンク 94.6%
シェリー・デゼヴァロス 1.4%
ジェニファー・サント 1.1%
マイケル・プラット <1%
$18,675 Vol.
$18,675 Vol.
2026/05/26
ジョン・ボンク
95%
シェリー・デゼヴァロス
1%
ジェニファー・サント
1%
マイケル・プラット
1%
ジェフ・ユナ
<1%
エイブリー・エイヤーズ
<1%
クレイグ・ゴラルスキー
<1%
バレット・マクナブ
<1%
ラリー・ルービン
<1%
カルメン・モンティエル
<1%
ジョン・ボンク 94.6%
シェリー・デゼヴァロス 1.4%
ジェニファー・サント 1.1%
マイケル・プラット <1%
$18,675 Vol.
$18,675 Vol.
2026/05/26
ジョン・ボンク
$16,450 Vol.
95%
シェリー・デゼヴァロス
$0 Vol.
1%
ジェニファー・サント
$2,225 Vol.
1%
マイケル・プラット
$0 Vol.
1%
ジェフ・ユナ
$0 Vol.
<1%
エイブリー・エイヤーズ
$0 Vol.
<1%
クレイグ・ゴラルスキー
$0 Vol.
<1%
バレット・マクナブ
$0 Vol.
<1%
ラリー・ルービン
$0 Vol.
<1%
カルメン・モンティエル
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck's commanding 94.6% implied probability in the TX-38 Republican primary market reflects his dominant 47% first-place finish in the crowded March 3, 2026, primary for the open seat vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, advancing him to the May 26 runoff against Shelly deZevallos. Trump endorsement, recent backing from Rep. Guy Reschenthaler on March 30, Club for Growth support, and strong fundraising as a mortgage industry leader have solidified trader consensus on his momentum in this Houston-area Republican stronghold. While deZevallos trails at 1.9%, a late scandal, voter consolidation among Holdouts, or unexpected turnout shifts could challenge Bonck, though such barriers remain high with eight weeks until the runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
音量
$18,675終了日
2026/05/26マーケット開始日
Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck's commanding 94.6% implied probability in the TX-38 Republican primary market reflects his dominant 47% first-place finish in the crowded March 3, 2026, primary for the open seat vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, advancing him to the May 26 runoff against Shelly deZevallos. Trump endorsement, recent backing from Rep. Guy Reschenthaler on March 30, Club for Growth support, and strong fundraising as a mortgage industry leader have solidified trader consensus on his momentum in this Houston-area Republican stronghold. While deZevallos trails at 1.9%, a late scandal, voter consolidation among Holdouts, or unexpected turnout shifts could challenge Bonck, though such barriers remain high with eight weeks until the runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$18,675終了日
2026/05/26マーケット開始日
Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jon Bonck's commanding 94.6% implied probability in the TX-38 Republican primary market reflects his dominant 47% first-place finish in the crowded March 3, 2026, primary for the open seat vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, advancing him to the May 26 runoff against Shelly deZevallos. Trump endorsement, recent backing from Rep. Guy Reschenthaler on March 30, Club for Growth support, and strong fundraising as a mortgage industry leader have solidified trader consensus on his momentum in this Houston-area Republican stronghold. While deZevallos trails at 1.9%, a late scandal, voter consolidation among Holdouts, or unexpected turnout shifts could challenge Bonck, though such barriers remain high with eight weeks until the runoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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