Trader consensus favors "No" at 66.5% implied probability for the proposed California One-Time Wealth Tax Initiative—a 5% levy on billionaire net worth to fund healthcare, education, and food programs—reflecting doubts over its qualification for the November 2026 ballot and voter approval amid partisan divides. Recent March polls from UC Berkeley and Politico show around 50% support among likely voters, but with sharp Democratic backing offset by Republican opposition and undecided independents, support softens upon learning of economic risks like wealth flight. Six billionaires have already relocated, eroding an estimated $27 billion in tax base and slashing projected $100 billion revenue to $40 billion per expert analyses, while tech leaders pledged $35 million to block it. Ongoing signature collection reached 25% of 875,000 needed by early March, facing constitutional challenges on valuation and retroactivity, with opposition campaigns intensifying.