Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott's commanding 82% win in the March 3 Republican primary solidified his path to a potential fourth term, driving trader consensus to price a GOP victory at 81% in the November 3 general election against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who captured 60% in her primary. Polling averages show Abbott ahead 49-42, though a March 11 survey of likely voters in Trump +15 territory tied them at 48-48; traders discount tighter numbers given Texas' entrenched Republican dominance—no Democratic governor since 1990—incumbent advantages, strong rural turnout, and 2024 presidential margins favoring the GOP. Race ratings remain Solid Republican, with early voting October 19-30 as a key upcoming milestone.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
81%
民主党
19%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$2,649 Vol.
81%
民主党
$3,192 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott's commanding 82% win in the March 3 Republican primary solidified his path to a potential fourth term, driving trader consensus to price a GOP victory at 81% in the November 3 general election against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who captured 60% in her primary. Polling averages show Abbott ahead 49-42, though a March 11 survey of likely voters in Trump +15 territory tied them at 48-48; traders discount tighter numbers given Texas' entrenched Republican dominance—no Democratic governor since 1990—incumbent advantages, strong rural turnout, and 2024 presidential margins favoring the GOP. Race ratings remain Solid Republican, with early voting October 19-30 as a key upcoming milestone.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
音量
$5,841終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott's commanding 82% win in the March 3 Republican primary solidified his path to a potential fourth term, driving trader consensus to price a GOP victory at 81% in the November 3 general election against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who captured 60% in her primary. Polling averages show Abbott ahead 49-42, though a March 11 survey of likely voters in Trump +15 territory tied them at 48-48; traders discount tighter numbers given Texas' entrenched Republican dominance—no Democratic governor since 1990—incumbent advantages, strong rural turnout, and 2024 presidential margins favoring the GOP. Race ratings remain Solid Republican, with early voting October 19-30 as a key upcoming milestone.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$5,841終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott's commanding 82% win in the March 3 Republican primary solidified his path to a potential fourth term, driving trader consensus to price a GOP victory at 81% in the November 3 general election against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who captured 60% in her primary. Polling averages show Abbott ahead 49-42, though a March 11 survey of likely voters in Trump +15 territory tied them at 48-48; traders discount tighter numbers given Texas' entrenched Republican dominance—no Democratic governor since 1990—incumbent advantages, strong rural turnout, and 2024 presidential margins favoring the GOP. Race ratings remain Solid Republican, with early voting October 19-30 as a key upcoming milestone.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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