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次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？

Market icon

次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？

12月 31

12月 31

オルバン - ハンガリー首相 61%

ディアス＝カネル - キューバ大統領 18%

スターマー - 英国首相 3.6%

ネタニヤフ - イスラエル首相 3.5%

Polymarket

$3,486,907 Vol.

オルバン - ハンガリー首相 61%

ディアス＝カネル - キューバ大統領 18%

スターマー - 英国首相 3.6%

ネタニヤフ - イスラエル首相 3.5%

Polymarket

$3,486,907 Vol.

オルバン - ハンガリー首相

$30,897 Vol.

61%

ディアス＝カネル - キューバ大統領

$22,048 Vol.

18%

スターマー - 英国首相

$561,964 Vol.

4%

ネタニヤフ - イスラエル首相

$1,014,498 Vol.

4%

高市 - 日本の首相

$355,289 Vol.

2%

トランプ - アメリカ大統領

$216,874 Vol.

2%

プーチン - ロシア大統領

$358,469 Vol.

2%

2027年以前なし

$21,179 Vol.

2%

ペトロ - コロンビア大統領

$16,222 Vol.

1%

マクロン - フランス大統領

$74,069 Vol.

1%

ゼレンスキー - ウクライナ大統領

$18,638 Vol.

1%

アッバース - パレスチナ大統領

$87,592 Vol.

1%

習近平 - 中国共産党総書記

$44,435 Vol.

1%

サンチェス - スペイン首相

$22,760 Vol.

1%

ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ - ブラジル大統領

$74,220 Vol.

1%

ルコルニュ - フランス首相

$70,441 Vol.

1%

アル＝シャラー - シリア大統領

$45,688 Vol.

1%

ロドリゲス - ベネズエラ代理大統領

$27,555 Vol.

<1%

エルドアン - トルコ大統領

$78,907 Vol.

<1%

金正恩 - 北朝鮮最高指導者

$27,426 Vol.

<1%

アルバニージー - オーストラリア首相

$61,653 Vol.

<1%

ニューサム - カリフォルニア州知事

$117,841 Vol.

<1%

ミレイ - アルゼンチン大統領

$40,172 Vol.

<1%

メルツ - ドイツ首相

$31,278 Vol.

<1%

シェインバウム - メキシコ大統領

$66,892 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus positions Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading outcome at 61% probability of exiting power before 2027, propelled by recent polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition Tisza—led by Peter Magyar—ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election. Surveys from March 11 and late March confirm Tisza's persistent lead, fueled by youth mobilization, economic discontent, and allegations of ruling party voter intimidation, marking a rare challenge to Orbán's 16-year incumbency. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel ranks second at 17.5% following a nationwide blackout in mid-March and US diplomatic pressure under President Trump demanding his ouster for talks, heightening succession speculation amid economic crisis. Lower odds for UK PM Keir Starmer, Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu, and others reflect distant elections or absent acute catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$3,486,907
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus positions Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading outcome at 61% probability of exiting power before 2027, propelled by recent polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition Tisza—led by Peter Magyar—ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election. Surveys from March 11 and late March confirm Tisza's persistent lead, fueled by youth mobilization, economic discontent, and allegations of ruling party voter intimidation, marking a rare challenge to Orbán's 16-year incumbency. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel ranks second at 17.5% following a nationwide blackout in mid-March and US diplomatic pressure under President Trump demanding his ouster for talks, heightening succession speculation amid economic crisis. Lower odds for UK PM Keir Starmer, Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu, and others reflect distant elections or absent acute catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$3,486,907
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？」はPolymarket上の25個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「オルバン - ハンガリー首相」で61%、次いで「ディアス＝カネル - キューバ大統領」が18%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、61¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に61%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？」は$3.5 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 3, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている25個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「オルバン - ハンガリー首相」で61%であり、市場がこの結果に61%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ディアス＝カネル - キューバ大統領」で18%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。