US and Israeli forces launched major airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, missile sites, and command centers, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and sparking ongoing escalation. In the past 24-48 hours, strikes have intensified across Tehran, Shiraz, Isfahan, and other sites, with the US deploying 3,500 troops via USS Tripoli and releasing CENTCOM footage of operations, while Iran retaliated against Gulf targets and Israeli cities with missile barrages. Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal five days ago, issuing counter-demands amid no diplomatic progress, leaving military action active. Traders monitor potential de-escalation signals, further troop buildups, or regional mediation efforts like Islamabad talks for resolution triggers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$245,993 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 30
<1%
March 31
1%
4月15日
21%
4月30日
38%
5月31日
74%
6月30日
84%
$245,993 Vol.
March 30
$24,586 Vol.
<1%
March 31
$105,582 Vol.
1%
4月15日
$6,044 Vol.
21%
4月30日
$5,003 Vol.
38%
5月31日
$2,773 Vol.
74%
6月30日
$386 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces launched major airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, missile sites, and command centers, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and sparking ongoing escalation. In the past 24-48 hours, strikes have intensified across Tehran, Shiraz, Isfahan, and other sites, with the US deploying 3,500 troops via USS Tripoli and releasing CENTCOM footage of operations, while Iran retaliated against Gulf targets and Israeli cities with missile barrages. Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal five days ago, issuing counter-demands amid no diplomatic progress, leaving military action active. Traders monitor potential de-escalation signals, further troop buildups, or regional mediation efforts like Islamabad talks for resolution triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
音量
$245,993終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces launched major airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, missile sites, and command centers, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and sparking ongoing escalation. In the past 24-48 hours, strikes have intensified across Tehran, Shiraz, Isfahan, and other sites, with the US deploying 3,500 troops via USS Tripoli and releasing CENTCOM footage of operations, while Iran retaliated against Gulf targets and Israeli cities with missile barrages. Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal five days ago, issuing counter-demands amid no diplomatic progress, leaving military action active. Traders monitor potential de-escalation signals, further troop buildups, or regional mediation efforts like Islamabad talks for resolution triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$245,993終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
US and Israeli forces launched major airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, missile sites, and command centers, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and sparking ongoing escalation. In the past 24-48 hours, strikes have intensified across Tehran, Shiraz, Isfahan, and other sites, with the US deploying 3,500 troops via USS Tripoli and releasing CENTCOM footage of operations, while Iran retaliated against Gulf targets and Israeli cities with missile barrages. Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal five days ago, issuing counter-demands amid no diplomatic progress, leaving military action active. Traders monitor potential de-escalation signals, further troop buildups, or regional mediation efforts like Islamabad talks for resolution triggers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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