US-Israeli military strikes against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, marked the start of open conflict now entering its fifth week. Recent escalations include Houthi missile attacks on Israel on March 28 amid their entry into the war, continued US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian defense industrial targets as of March 27, and new American casualties prompting additional troop deployments. Iran sustains retaliatory drone and missile barrages on Israel and US bases while closing the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic momentum builds with US special envoy signaling potential talks this week on a 15-point peace proposal, though Israel persists with bombings despite domestic protests demanding de-escalation; trader consensus reflects uncertainty over regime resilience and negotiation breakthroughs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
$22,197 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
5%
April 2
8%
April 3
9%
April 4
12%
April 5
12%
April 6
7%
April 7
31%
April 8
41%
April 9
41%
April 10
41%
April 11
41%
April 12
41%
April 13
41%
April 14
25%
April 15
41%
April 16
41%
April 17
41%
April 18
41%
April 19
41%
April 20
42%
April 21
41%
April 22
41%
April 23
41%
April 24
41%
April 25
41%
April 26
41%
April 27
42%
April 28
42%
April 29
39%
April 30
44%
$22,197 Vol.
April 1
$20 Vol.
5%
April 2
$165 Vol.
8%
April 3
$0 Vol.
9%
April 4
$0 Vol.
12%
April 5
$0 Vol.
12%
April 6
$6 Vol.
7%
April 7
$0 Vol.
31%
April 8
$1 Vol.
41%
April 9
$2,763 Vol.
41%
April 10
$0 Vol.
41%
April 11
$0 Vol.
41%
April 12
$0 Vol.
41%
April 13
$0 Vol.
41%
April 14
$3,263 Vol.
25%
April 15
$0 Vol.
41%
April 16
$0 Vol.
41%
April 17
$0 Vol.
41%
April 18
$0 Vol.
41%
April 19
$0 Vol.
41%
April 20
$0 Vol.
42%
April 21
$0 Vol.
41%
April 22
$0 Vol.
41%
April 23
$0 Vol.
41%
April 24
$0 Vol.
41%
April 25
$2,740 Vol.
41%
April 26
$0 Vol.
41%
April 27
$0 Vol.
42%
April 28
$0 Vol.
42%
April 29
$0 Vol.
39%
April 30
$13,238 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli military strikes against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, marked the start of open conflict now entering its fifth week. Recent escalations include Houthi missile attacks on Israel on March 28 amid their entry into the war, continued US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian defense industrial targets as of March 27, and new American casualties prompting additional troop deployments. Iran sustains retaliatory drone and missile barrages on Israel and US bases while closing the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic momentum builds with US special envoy signaling potential talks this week on a 15-point peace proposal, though Israel persists with bombings despite domestic protests demanding de-escalation; trader consensus reflects uncertainty over regime resilience and negotiation breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
音量
$22,197終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli military strikes against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, marked the start of open conflict now entering its fifth week. Recent escalations include Houthi missile attacks on Israel on March 28 amid their entry into the war, continued US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian defense industrial targets as of March 27, and new American casualties prompting additional troop deployments. Iran sustains retaliatory drone and missile barrages on Israel and US bases while closing the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic momentum builds with US special envoy signaling potential talks this week on a 15-point peace proposal, though Israel persists with bombings despite domestic protests demanding de-escalation; trader consensus reflects uncertainty over regime resilience and negotiation breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$22,197終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli military strikes against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, marked the start of open conflict now entering its fifth week. Recent escalations include Houthi missile attacks on Israel on March 28 amid their entry into the war, continued US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian defense industrial targets as of March 27, and new American casualties prompting additional troop deployments. Iran sustains retaliatory drone and missile barrages on Israel and US bases while closing the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic momentum builds with US special envoy signaling potential talks this week on a 15-point peace proposal, though Israel persists with bombings despite domestic protests demanding de-escalation; trader consensus reflects uncertainty over regime resilience and negotiation breakthroughs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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