US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and defense industries—now in their sixth week since launching on February 28, 2026—continue unabated, driving trader consensus toward prolonged conflict in this Polymarket. Iran rejected a US-proposed 48-hour ceasefire on April 3, while claiming to have downed two American fighter jets the same day, with one service member rescued and another missing, underscoring ongoing escalation and retaliatory missile barrages on Israel. No de-escalation signals have emerged amid degraded Iranian command structures and closed Strait of Hormuz, though diplomatic backchannels or regime internal pressures could shift dynamics ahead of potential UN Security Council sessions next week.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$72,692 Vol.
2026/04/30
April 3
<1%
April 4
1%
April 5
1%
April 6
1%
April 7
2%
April 8
18%
April 9
19%
April 10
12%
April 11
41%
April 12
43%
April 13
43%
April 14
9%
April 15
10%
April 16
37%
April 17
42%
April 18
44%
April 19
44%
April 20
25%
April 21
44%
April 22
44%
April 23
44%
April 24
44%
April 25
30%
April 26
44%
April 27
45%
April 28
44%
April 29
44%
April 30
32%
$72,692 Vol.
April 3
$8,242 Vol.
<1%
April 4
$1,970 Vol.
1%
April 5
$2,161 Vol.
1%
April 6
$5,625 Vol.
1%
April 7
$100 Vol.
2%
April 8
$35 Vol.
18%
April 9
$2,810 Vol.
19%
April 10
$0 Vol.
12%
April 11
$11 Vol.
41%
April 12
$0 Vol.
43%
April 13
$0 Vol.
43%
April 14
$4,746 Vol.
9%
April 15
$159 Vol.
10%
April 16
$0 Vol.
37%
April 17
$0 Vol.
42%
April 18
$0 Vol.
44%
April 19
$0 Vol.
44%
April 20
$0 Vol.
25%
April 21
$0 Vol.
44%
April 22
$0 Vol.
44%
April 23
$0 Vol.
44%
April 24
$0 Vol.
44%
April 25
$2,777 Vol.
30%
April 26
$0 Vol.
44%
April 27
$38 Vol.
45%
April 28
$0 Vol.
44%
April 29
$0 Vol.
44%
April 30
$22,362 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and defense industries—now in their sixth week since launching on February 28, 2026—continue unabated, driving trader consensus toward prolonged conflict in this Polymarket. Iran rejected a US-proposed 48-hour ceasefire on April 3, while claiming to have downed two American fighter jets the same day, with one service member rescued and another missing, underscoring ongoing escalation and retaliatory missile barrages on Israel. No de-escalation signals have emerged amid degraded Iranian command structures and closed Strait of Hormuz, though diplomatic backchannels or regime internal pressures could shift dynamics ahead of potential UN Security Council sessions next week.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
音量
$72,692終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and defense industries—now in their sixth week since launching on February 28, 2026—continue unabated, driving trader consensus toward prolonged conflict in this Polymarket. Iran rejected a US-proposed 48-hour ceasefire on April 3, while claiming to have downed two American fighter jets the same day, with one service member rescued and another missing, underscoring ongoing escalation and retaliatory missile barrages on Israel. No de-escalation signals have emerged amid degraded Iranian command structures and closed Strait of Hormuz, though diplomatic backchannels or regime internal pressures could shift dynamics ahead of potential UN Security Council sessions next week.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$72,692終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and defense industries—now in their sixth week since launching on February 28, 2026—continue unabated, driving trader consensus toward prolonged conflict in this Polymarket. Iran rejected a US-proposed 48-hour ceasefire on April 3, while claiming to have downed two American fighter jets the same day, with one service member rescued and another missing, underscoring ongoing escalation and retaliatory missile barrages on Israel. No de-escalation signals have emerged amid degraded Iranian command structures and closed Strait of Hormuz, though diplomatic backchannels or regime internal pressures could shift dynamics ahead of potential UN Security Council sessions next week.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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