Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a 64.5% implied probability as trader consensus favorite in the Kentucky 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his established record, local grassroots support, and fundraising from libertarian donors despite President Trump's mid-March rally and endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL. Recent Northern Kentucky voter interviews reveal divided sentiment, with Trump's influence boosting Gallrein to 35.4% amid attack ads from both camps accusing disloyalty—Massie labeling Gallrein a "Trump traitor" and vice versa on votes like taxpayer-funded gender transitions for minors. Heavy out-of-state spending has intensified the race, but no recent polls show a clear Gallrein lead, underscoring incumbency's edge in this deep-red district six weeks out.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日トーマス・マッシー 65%
エド・ガルレイン 35.4%
ニコール・リー・エシントン <1%
ロバート・ウェルズ・ジュニア <1%
$159,963 Vol.
$159,963 Vol.
トーマス・マッシー
65%
エド・ガルレイン
35%
ニコール・リー・エシントン
<1%
ロバート・ウェルズ・ジュニア
<1%
トーマス・マッシー 65%
エド・ガルレイン 35.4%
ニコール・リー・エシントン <1%
ロバート・ウェルズ・ジュニア <1%
$159,963 Vol.
$159,963 Vol.
トーマス・マッシー
65%
エド・ガルレイン
35%
ニコール・リー・エシントン
<1%
ロバート・ウェルズ・ジュニア
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日： Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a 64.5% implied probability as trader consensus favorite in the Kentucky 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his established record, local grassroots support, and fundraising from libertarian donors despite President Trump's mid-March rally and endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL. Recent Northern Kentucky voter interviews reveal divided sentiment, with Trump's influence boosting Gallrein to 35.4% amid attack ads from both camps accusing disloyalty—Massie labeling Gallrein a "Trump traitor" and vice versa on votes like taxpayer-funded gender transitions for minors. Heavy out-of-state spending has intensified the race, but no recent polls show a clear Gallrein lead, underscoring incumbency's edge in this deep-red district six weeks out.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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