Incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall's (R) reelection bid in solidly Republican Kansas drives trader consensus to an 85.5% implied probability for a Republican winner, reflecting the state's long history of GOP Senate dominance since 1932 and forecasters' Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Marshall, endorsed by former President Trump and boasting over $4 million in cash on hand as of late 2025, faces only minor primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest. Democrats' crowded primary—featuring recent entrants like former prosecutor Jason Hart (March 11 announcement) and Noah Taylor (March 17)—remains fragmented with modest fundraising, underscoring steep barriers absent early polling or nationalized dynamics. The June 1 filing deadline looms as the next potential catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$15,766 Vol.
$15,766 Vol.

共和党
85%

民主党
14%
$15,766 Vol.
$15,766 Vol.

共和党
85%

民主党
14%
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall's (R) reelection bid in solidly Republican Kansas drives trader consensus to an 85.5% implied probability for a Republican winner, reflecting the state's long history of GOP Senate dominance since 1932 and forecasters' Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Marshall, endorsed by former President Trump and boasting over $4 million in cash on hand as of late 2025, faces only minor primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest. Democrats' crowded primary—featuring recent entrants like former prosecutor Jason Hart (March 11 announcement) and Noah Taylor (March 17)—remains fragmented with modest fundraising, underscoring steep barriers absent early polling or nationalized dynamics. The June 1 filing deadline looms as the next potential catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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