Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan holds a commanding trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability for retaining Indiana's 1st Congressional District seat in the November 2026 general election, reflecting his track record of narrow victories—53% in 2024, 53% in 2022—despite the district's D+1 partisan lean and near-even 2024 presidential split. A crowded Republican primary on May 5 features Barb Regnitz, David Ben Ruiz, and James Schenke, likely producing a fragmented field without a standout challenger akin to past nominees who underperformed. Ratings from Cook Political Report (Likely D), Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reinforce the lean toward Mrvan amid his unchallenged primary path against LaVetta Sparks-Wade and early fundraising momentum reported in February. National generic ballot edges for Democrats further bolster the hold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
76%
共和党
21%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$53 Vol.
76%
共和党
$0 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan holds a commanding trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability for retaining Indiana's 1st Congressional District seat in the November 2026 general election, reflecting his track record of narrow victories—53% in 2024, 53% in 2022—despite the district's D+1 partisan lean and near-even 2024 presidential split. A crowded Republican primary on May 5 features Barb Regnitz, David Ben Ruiz, and James Schenke, likely producing a fragmented field without a standout challenger akin to past nominees who underperformed. Ratings from Cook Political Report (Likely D), Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reinforce the lean toward Mrvan amid his unchallenged primary path against LaVetta Sparks-Wade and early fundraising momentum reported in February. National generic ballot edges for Democrats further bolster the hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ET
音量
$53終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan holds a commanding trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability for retaining Indiana's 1st Congressional District seat in the November 2026 general election, reflecting his track record of narrow victories—53% in 2024, 53% in 2022—despite the district's D+1 partisan lean and near-even 2024 presidential split. A crowded Republican primary on May 5 features Barb Regnitz, David Ben Ruiz, and James Schenke, likely producing a fragmented field without a standout challenger akin to past nominees who underperformed. Ratings from Cook Political Report (Likely D), Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reinforce the lean toward Mrvan amid his unchallenged primary path against LaVetta Sparks-Wade and early fundraising momentum reported in February. National generic ballot edges for Democrats further bolster the hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$53終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan holds a commanding trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability for retaining Indiana's 1st Congressional District seat in the November 2026 general election, reflecting his track record of narrow victories—53% in 2024, 53% in 2022—despite the district's D+1 partisan lean and near-even 2024 presidential split. A crowded Republican primary on May 5 features Barb Regnitz, David Ben Ruiz, and James Schenke, likely producing a fragmented field without a standout challenger akin to past nominees who underperformed. Ratings from Cook Political Report (Likely D), Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reinforce the lean toward Mrvan amid his unchallenged primary path against LaVetta Sparks-Wade and early fundraising momentum reported in February. National generic ballot edges for Democrats further bolster the hold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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