Incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little's bid for a third term, formalized in late February 2026 with President Trump's endorsement, anchors trader consensus at 94% odds for a GOP victory in Idaho's deep-red gubernatorial race. Little faces multiple far-right challengers in the May 19 Republican primary, including bar owner Mark Fitzpatrick, but his incumbency advantage and statewide name recognition position him as the frontrunner amid Idaho's history of overwhelming Republican dominance—no Democrat has won governor since 1994. The Democratic primary draws limited interest, with no high-profile challengers emerging post-filing deadline. While probabilities exceed 90%, shifts could arise from a divisive primary bruising the nominee, a major scandal, health issues, or national midterm turnout surges affecting conservative base mobilization ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
94%
民主党
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 Vol.
94%
民主党
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little's bid for a third term, formalized in late February 2026 with President Trump's endorsement, anchors trader consensus at 94% odds for a GOP victory in Idaho's deep-red gubernatorial race. Little faces multiple far-right challengers in the May 19 Republican primary, including bar owner Mark Fitzpatrick, but his incumbency advantage and statewide name recognition position him as the frontrunner amid Idaho's history of overwhelming Republican dominance—no Democrat has won governor since 1994. The Democratic primary draws limited interest, with no high-profile challengers emerging post-filing deadline. While probabilities exceed 90%, shifts could arise from a divisive primary bruising the nominee, a major scandal, health issues, or national midterm turnout surges affecting conservative base mobilization ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little's bid for a third term, formalized in late February 2026 with President Trump's endorsement, anchors trader consensus at 94% odds for a GOP victory in Idaho's deep-red gubernatorial race. Little faces multiple far-right challengers in the May 19 Republican primary, including bar owner Mark Fitzpatrick, but his incumbency advantage and statewide name recognition position him as the frontrunner amid Idaho's history of overwhelming Republican dominance—no Democrat has won governor since 1994. The Democratic primary draws limited interest, with no high-profile challengers emerging post-filing deadline. While probabilities exceed 90%, shifts could arise from a divisive primary bruising the nominee, a major scandal, health issues, or national midterm turnout surges affecting conservative base mobilization ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little's bid for a third term, formalized in late February 2026 with President Trump's endorsement, anchors trader consensus at 94% odds for a GOP victory in Idaho's deep-red gubernatorial race. Little faces multiple far-right challengers in the May 19 Republican primary, including bar owner Mark Fitzpatrick, but his incumbency advantage and statewide name recognition position him as the frontrunner amid Idaho's history of overwhelming Republican dominance—no Democrat has won governor since 1994. The Democratic primary draws limited interest, with no high-profile challengers emerging post-filing deadline. While probabilities exceed 90%, shifts could arise from a divisive primary bruising the nominee, a major scandal, health issues, or national midterm turnout surges affecting conservative base mobilization ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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