Market icon

How many Federal employees will accept buyout?

Market icon

How many Federal employees will accept buyout?

50-100k 100.0%

<50k <1%

100-150k <1%

150-200k <1%

Polymarket

$2,505,173 Vol.

50-100k 100.0%

<50k <1%

100-150k <1%

150-200k <1%

Polymarket

$2,505,173 Vol.

<50k

$211,908 Vol.

No

50-100k

$69,282 Vol.

Yes

100-150k

$56,860 Vol.

No

150-200k

$181,553 Vol.

No

200-250k

$231,744 Vol.

No

250-300k

$310,764 Vol.

No

300-350k

$167,875 Vol.

No

350-400k

$484,367 Vol.

No

400-450k

$186,089 Vol.

No

450-500k

$238,294 Vol.

No

500k+

$366,437 Vol.

No

The Trump administration announced Tuesday that it is offering deferred resignations to all federal employees who opt to leave their jobs by February 6 (see: https://www.opm.gov/fork)

This market will resolve according to the number of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the number is reported as a percentage of the Federal workforce, with no reporting of the actual number by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will use the most exact unrounded percentage reported out of 3,010,000 to calculate the number of deferred resignations (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001).

If the Trump Administration does not publish the number or percentage of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,505,173
終了日
Feb 28, 2025
マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2025, 11:25 AM ET
The Trump administration announced Tuesday that it is offering deferred resignations to all federal employees who opt to leave their jobs by February 6 (see: https://www.opm.gov/fork) This market will resolve according to the number of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the number is reported as a percentage of the Federal workforce, with no reporting of the actual number by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will use the most exact unrounded percentage reported out of 3,010,000 to calculate the number of deferred resignations (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001). If the Trump Administration does not publish the number or percentage of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

提案された結果: No

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: No

外部リンクに注意してください。

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many Federal employees will accept buyout?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "50-100k" at 100%, followed by "<50k" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many Federal employees will accept buyout?" has generated $2.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many Federal employees will accept buyout?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many Federal employees will accept buyout?" is "50-100k" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<50k" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many Federal employees will accept buyout?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.