Trader consensus prices a 98.5% probability against the US announcing military support for Kurds in Iran by March 31, anchored by the absence of any official White House, Department of Defense, or State Department declarations despite early March reports of CIA consultations with Iranian Kurdish militias and President Trump's public outreach pledging backing. Revelations from CNN on March 3 and Reuters on March 4 fueled initial speculation amid broader US-Iran tensions, including airstrikes near the Iran-Iraq border, but no formal commitments have materialized in the past three weeks, reflecting geopolitical risks like escalation to wider conflict, Turkish objections over PKK ties, and historical US caution in proxy support. Only a sudden Iranian offensive on Kurdish areas or late-breaking diplomatic rupture could alter this trajectory before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$471,997 Vol.
$471,997 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$471,997 Vol.
$471,997 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a 98.5% probability against the US announcing military support for Kurds in Iran by March 31, anchored by the absence of any official White House, Department of Defense, or State Department declarations despite early March reports of CIA consultations with Iranian Kurdish militias and President Trump's public outreach pledging backing. Revelations from CNN on March 3 and Reuters on March 4 fueled initial speculation amid broader US-Iran tensions, including airstrikes near the Iran-Iraq border, but no formal commitments have materialized in the past three weeks, reflecting geopolitical risks like escalation to wider conflict, Turkish objections over PKK ties, and historical US caution in proxy support. Only a sudden Iranian offensive on Kurdish areas or late-breaking diplomatic rupture could alter this trajectory before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 3, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
音量
$471,997終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 3, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a 98.5% probability against the US announcing military support for Kurds in Iran by March 31, anchored by the absence of any official White House, Department of Defense, or State Department declarations despite early March reports of CIA consultations with Iranian Kurdish militias and President Trump's public outreach pledging backing. Revelations from CNN on March 3 and Reuters on March 4 fueled initial speculation amid broader US-Iran tensions, including airstrikes near the Iran-Iraq border, but no formal commitments have materialized in the past three weeks, reflecting geopolitical risks like escalation to wider conflict, Turkish objections over PKK ties, and historical US caution in proxy support. Only a sudden Iranian offensive on Kurdish areas or late-breaking diplomatic rupture could alter this trajectory before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$471,997終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 3, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 98.5% probability against the US announcing military support for Kurds in Iran by March 31, anchored by the absence of any official White House, Department of Defense, or State Department declarations despite early March reports of CIA consultations with Iranian Kurdish militias and President Trump's public outreach pledging backing. Revelations from CNN on March 3 and Reuters on March 4 fueled initial speculation amid broader US-Iran tensions, including airstrikes near the Iran-Iraq border, but no formal commitments have materialized in the past three weeks, reflecting geopolitical risks like escalation to wider conflict, Turkish objections over PKK ties, and historical US caution in proxy support. Only a sudden Iranian offensive on Kurdish areas or late-breaking diplomatic rupture could alter this trajectory before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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