Nicolás Maduro’s U.S. drug-trafficking and narco-terrorism prosecution, stemming from his January 2026 capture during a military operation in Caracas, drives current trader consensus. Detained in Brooklyn pending a June 2027 trial, Maduro has pleaded not guilty and filed early September motions to dismiss the indictment on head-of-state immunity grounds, with prosecutors due to respond by early October and oral arguments set for November 17. These procedural hurdles, combined with the extended pretrial timeline and historical patterns in complex foreign-leader cases, underpin the 62% implied probability traders assign to no prison time by the December 31, 2027 resolution date. A conviction could still produce decades or life imprisonment, supporting the secondary 22.5% weighting on sentences exceeding 60 years.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日刑務所に入らない 62%
60年以上 23%
20年未満 9.0%
40～60 1.0%
$739,644 Vol.
$739,644 Vol.
2027/12/30
刑務所に入らない
62%
20年未満
9%
20～40
1%
40～60
1%
60年以上
23%
刑務所に入らない 62%
60年以上 23%
20年未満 9.0%
40～60 1.0%
$739,644 Vol.
$739,644 Vol.
2027/12/30
刑務所に入らない
$446,115 Vol.
62%
20年未満
$113,344 Vol.
9%
20～40
$60,579 Vol.
1%
40～60
$27,866 Vol.
1%
60年以上
$91,740 Vol.
23%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro’s U.S. drug-trafficking and narco-terrorism prosecution, stemming from his January 2026 capture during a military operation in Caracas, drives current trader consensus. Detained in Brooklyn pending a June 2027 trial, Maduro has pleaded not guilty and filed early September motions to dismiss the indictment on head-of-state immunity grounds, with prosecutors due to respond by early October and oral arguments set for November 17. These procedural hurdles, combined with the extended pretrial timeline and historical patterns in complex foreign-leader cases, underpin the 62% implied probability traders assign to no prison time by the December 31, 2027 resolution date. A conviction could still produce decades or life imprisonment, supporting the secondary 22.5% weighting on sentences exceeding 60 years.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
音量
$739,644終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro’s U.S. drug-trafficking and narco-terrorism prosecution, stemming from his January 2026 capture during a military operation in Caracas, drives current trader consensus. Detained in Brooklyn pending a June 2027 trial, Maduro has pleaded not guilty and filed early September motions to dismiss the indictment on head-of-state immunity grounds, with prosecutors due to respond by early October and oral arguments set for November 17. These procedural hurdles, combined with the extended pretrial timeline and historical patterns in complex foreign-leader cases, underpin the 62% implied probability traders assign to no prison time by the December 31, 2027 resolution date. A conviction could still produce decades or life imprisonment, supporting the secondary 22.5% weighting on sentences exceeding 60 years.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$739,644終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Nicolás Maduro’s U.S. drug-trafficking and narco-terrorism prosecution, stemming from his January 2026 capture during a military operation in Caracas, drives current trader consensus. Detained in Brooklyn pending a June 2027 trial, Maduro has pleaded not guilty and filed early September motions to dismiss the indictment on head-of-state immunity grounds, with prosecutors due to respond by early October and oral arguments set for November 17. These procedural hurdles, combined with the extended pretrial timeline and historical patterns in complex foreign-leader cases, underpin the 62% implied probability traders assign to no prison time by the December 31, 2027 resolution date. A conviction could still produce decades or life imprisonment, supporting the secondary 22.5% weighting on sentences exceeding 60 years.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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