Trader consensus on the "Maduro Prison Time?" market reflects uncertainty in the Southern District of New York narco-terrorism case against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, detained since his January 2026 U.S. capture and arraignment where he pleaded not guilty to charges carrying a minimum 20-year sentence up to life. No prison time leads narrowly at 37.5% amid defense motions invoking head-of-state immunity, claims of improper abduction, and U.S. sanctions blocking legal funding—issues highlighted in Judge Alvin Hellerstein's March 26 hearing, where he rejected dismissal but questioned sanctions' necessity given recent U.S.-Venezuela oil trade shifts. The 29.5% on 60+ years prices in the indictment's severity from 2020 superseding charges, while pretrial disputes and no trial date keep outcomes closely contested; a plea deal, immunity ruling, or trial commencement could widen the spread.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日刑務所に入らない 38%
60年以上 24%
40～60 14%
20～40 10.5%
$446,338 Vol.
$446,338 Vol.
2027/12/31
刑務所に入らない
38%
20年未満
3%
20～40
11%
40～60
14%
60年以上
30%
刑務所に入らない 38%
60年以上 24%
40～60 14%
20～40 10.5%
$446,338 Vol.
$446,338 Vol.
2027/12/31
刑務所に入らない
$349,794 Vol.
38%
20年未満
$27,937 Vol.
3%
20～40
$27,070 Vol.
11%
40～60
$12,830 Vol.
14%
60年以上
$28,707 Vol.
30%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the "Maduro Prison Time?" market reflects uncertainty in the Southern District of New York narco-terrorism case against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, detained since his January 2026 U.S. capture and arraignment where he pleaded not guilty to charges carrying a minimum 20-year sentence up to life. No prison time leads narrowly at 37.5% amid defense motions invoking head-of-state immunity, claims of improper abduction, and U.S. sanctions blocking legal funding—issues highlighted in Judge Alvin Hellerstein's March 26 hearing, where he rejected dismissal but questioned sanctions' necessity given recent U.S.-Venezuela oil trade shifts. The 29.5% on 60+ years prices in the indictment's severity from 2020 superseding charges, while pretrial disputes and no trial date keep outcomes closely contested; a plea deal, immunity ruling, or trial commencement could widen the spread.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
音量
$446,338終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the "Maduro Prison Time?" market reflects uncertainty in the Southern District of New York narco-terrorism case against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, detained since his January 2026 U.S. capture and arraignment where he pleaded not guilty to charges carrying a minimum 20-year sentence up to life. No prison time leads narrowly at 37.5% amid defense motions invoking head-of-state immunity, claims of improper abduction, and U.S. sanctions blocking legal funding—issues highlighted in Judge Alvin Hellerstein's March 26 hearing, where he rejected dismissal but questioned sanctions' necessity given recent U.S.-Venezuela oil trade shifts. The 29.5% on 60+ years prices in the indictment's severity from 2020 superseding charges, while pretrial disputes and no trial date keep outcomes closely contested; a plea deal, immunity ruling, or trial commencement could widen the spread.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$446,338終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the "Maduro Prison Time?" market reflects uncertainty in the Southern District of New York narco-terrorism case against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, detained since his January 2026 U.S. capture and arraignment where he pleaded not guilty to charges carrying a minimum 20-year sentence up to life. No prison time leads narrowly at 37.5% amid defense motions invoking head-of-state immunity, claims of improper abduction, and U.S. sanctions blocking legal funding—issues highlighted in Judge Alvin Hellerstein's March 26 hearing, where he rejected dismissal but questioned sanctions' necessity given recent U.S.-Venezuela oil trade shifts. The 29.5% on 60+ years prices in the indictment's severity from 2020 superseding charges, while pretrial disputes and no trial date keep outcomes closely contested; a plea deal, immunity ruling, or trial commencement could widen the spread.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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