US authorities captured ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores in a January 2026 military operation in Caracas and transferred them to New York custody on longstanding narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges, with a superseding indictment unsealed October 8 adding conspiracy to commit torture. The June 2027 trial date remains in place amid defense motions to dismiss on head-of-state immunity grounds, which prosecutors have opposed by noting Maduro’s ouster and lack of recognition from Venezuela’s interim leadership. Traders appear to weigh the possibility of case dismissal, acquittal, or negotiated resolution against the severe mandatory minimum sentences that could apply on conviction, producing the current distribution favoring no prison time while still assigning meaningful probability to lengthy terms.