Following Nicolás Maduro's January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces in Caracas and transfer to a New York federal facility, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over his narco-terrorism conspiracy and arms charges, unsealed from a 2020 indictment, which carry potential life sentences. The 33% implied probability for 60+ years prison time leads narrowly over 25% for no prison time, driven by pre-trial disputes including claims of irregular extradition and evidentiary challenges, as highlighted in his March 26 court appearance where he remains under special administrative measures in solitary confinement. A plea deal, trial verdict, or Supreme Court ruling on custody validity could widen the gap, while political pressures add volatility absent a firm sentencing timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日60年以上 33%
刑務所に入らない 25%
40～60 14%
20～40 12.0%
$457,126 Vol.
$457,126 Vol.
2027/12/31
刑務所に入らない
25%
20年未満
6%
20～40
12%
40～60
14%
60年以上
33%
60年以上 33%
刑務所に入らない 25%
40～60 14%
20～40 12.0%
$457,126 Vol.
$457,126 Vol.
2027/12/31
刑務所に入らない
$359,702 Vol.
25%
20年未満
$28,087 Vol.
6%
20～40
$27,331 Vol.
12%
40～60
$13,261 Vol.
14%
60年以上
$28,745 Vol.
33%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following Nicolás Maduro's January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces in Caracas and transfer to a New York federal facility, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over his narco-terrorism conspiracy and arms charges, unsealed from a 2020 indictment, which carry potential life sentences. The 33% implied probability for 60+ years prison time leads narrowly over 25% for no prison time, driven by pre-trial disputes including claims of irregular extradition and evidentiary challenges, as highlighted in his March 26 court appearance where he remains under special administrative measures in solitary confinement. A plea deal, trial verdict, or Supreme Court ruling on custody validity could widen the gap, while political pressures add volatility absent a firm sentencing timeline.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
音量
$457,126終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following Nicolás Maduro's January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces in Caracas and transfer to a New York federal facility, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over his narco-terrorism conspiracy and arms charges, unsealed from a 2020 indictment, which carry potential life sentences. The 33% implied probability for 60+ years prison time leads narrowly over 25% for no prison time, driven by pre-trial disputes including claims of irregular extradition and evidentiary challenges, as highlighted in his March 26 court appearance where he remains under special administrative measures in solitary confinement. A plea deal, trial verdict, or Supreme Court ruling on custody validity could widen the gap, while political pressures add volatility absent a firm sentencing timeline.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$457,126終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Following Nicolás Maduro's January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces in Caracas and transfer to a New York federal facility, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over his narco-terrorism conspiracy and arms charges, unsealed from a 2020 indictment, which carry potential life sentences. The 33% implied probability for 60+ years prison time leads narrowly over 25% for no prison time, driven by pre-trial disputes including claims of irregular extradition and evidentiary challenges, as highlighted in his March 26 court appearance where he remains under special administrative measures in solitary confinement. A plea deal, trial verdict, or Supreme Court ruling on custody validity could widen the gap, while political pressures add volatility absent a firm sentencing timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問