Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's potential prison time remains fragmented, with no outcome exceeding 27.2% implied probability for "No Prison Time," closely trailed by 10-20 years at 22.8% and 20-30 years at 19.4%, reflecting uncertainty from his April 2024 New York conviction overturn on appeal due to judicial errors allowing improper testimony. The now-defunct 23-year New York sentence fueled prior market optimism for lengthy terms, but his standing 16-year California rape conviction—currently under appeal—anchors mid-range odds, while recent hospitalizations underscore health risks at age 72 that could avert incarceration. Key differentiators include Manhattan DA's push for a swift retrial (delayed to 2025), California appeal outcomes, and #MeToo-era legal precedents favoring accountability amid procedural snags; traders eye court dates and medical updates as pivotal momentum shifters in this high-stakes Hollywood reckoning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ハーヴェイ・ワインスタインの実刑判決?
ハーヴェイ・ワインスタインの実刑判決?
実刑なし 27.2%
10〜20年 18.6%
5年未満 14.4%
5~10年 10.2%
$608,622 Vol.
$608,622 Vol.
実刑なし
27%
5年未満
14%
5~10年
10%
10〜20年
19%
20〜30年
15%
30年以上
5%
実刑なし 27.2%
10〜20年 18.6%
5年未満 14.4%
5~10年 10.2%
$608,622 Vol.
$608,622 Vol.
実刑なし
27%
5年未満
14%
5~10年
10%
10〜20年
19%
20〜30年
15%
30年以上
5%
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's potential prison time remains fragmented, with no outcome exceeding 27.2% implied probability for "No Prison Time," closely trailed by 10-20 years at 22.8% and 20-30 years at 19.4%, reflecting uncertainty from his April 2024 New York conviction overturn on appeal due to judicial errors allowing improper testimony. The now-defunct 23-year New York sentence fueled prior market optimism for lengthy terms, but his standing 16-year California rape conviction—currently under appeal—anchors mid-range odds, while recent hospitalizations underscore health risks at age 72 that could avert incarceration. Key differentiators include Manhattan DA's push for a swift retrial (delayed to 2025), California appeal outcomes, and #MeToo-era legal precedents favoring accountability amid procedural snags; traders eye court dates and medical updates as pivotal momentum shifters in this high-stakes Hollywood reckoning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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