Traders assign a 95.2 percent probability that Don Lemon will not face a prison sentence because the federal case arising from his January 2026 coverage of an anti-ICE protest at a Minnesota church remains unresolved amid active dismissal motions. Lemon and co-defendants pleaded not guilty to conspiracy and FACE Act charges, with defense filings and amicus briefs from media organizations emphasizing First Amendment protections for newsgathering rather than participation. An initial magistrate review found insufficient evidence of criminal conduct, and the matter has proceeded through hearings without a conviction. Realistic scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unexpected guilty verdict at trial or a plea agreement, though both appear remote given the pending constitutional challenges and procedural posture.