Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes against Iran, intensified over the past week with targets in Tehran and nuclear sites as of March 28, anchor trader consensus for continued action into April, alongside routine responses to Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon and recent strikes on Syrian government infrastructure on March 20 following Druze clashes. The tight race between ≥4 countries (47.5%) and 3 (44.5%) reflects uncertainty over escalation to additional fronts like Iraq's Iran-backed militias—hit by coalition strikes—or Yemen's Houthis, who recently launched attacks on Israel amid threats of broader involvement. Ceasefire talks have stalled amid Israel's warnings of expanding operations through Passover, but a diplomatic breakthrough or proxy de-escalation could cap strikes at 2-3, while fresh proxy barrages might push toward ≥4.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3 60%
≥4 48%
2 38%
≤1 9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
9%
2
38%
3
60%
≥4
48%
3 60%
≥4 48%
2 38%
≤1 9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$36 Vol.
9%
2
$1 Vol.
38%
3
$128 Vol.
60%
≥4
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes against Iran, intensified over the past week with targets in Tehran and nuclear sites as of March 28, anchor trader consensus for continued action into April, alongside routine responses to Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon and recent strikes on Syrian government infrastructure on March 20 following Druze clashes. The tight race between ≥4 countries (47.5%) and 3 (44.5%) reflects uncertainty over escalation to additional fronts like Iraq's Iran-backed militias—hit by coalition strikes—or Yemen's Houthis, who recently launched attacks on Israel amid threats of broader involvement. Ceasefire talks have stalled amid Israel's warnings of expanding operations through Passover, but a diplomatic breakthrough or proxy de-escalation could cap strikes at 2-3, while fresh proxy barrages might push toward ≥4.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
音量
$165終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes against Iran, intensified over the past week with targets in Tehran and nuclear sites as of March 28, anchor trader consensus for continued action into April, alongside routine responses to Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon and recent strikes on Syrian government infrastructure on March 20 following Druze clashes. The tight race between ≥4 countries (47.5%) and 3 (44.5%) reflects uncertainty over escalation to additional fronts like Iraq's Iran-backed militias—hit by coalition strikes—or Yemen's Houthis, who recently launched attacks on Israel amid threats of broader involvement. Ceasefire talks have stalled amid Israel's warnings of expanding operations through Passover, but a diplomatic breakthrough or proxy de-escalation could cap strikes at 2-3, while fresh proxy barrages might push toward ≥4.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$165終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes against Iran, intensified over the past week with targets in Tehran and nuclear sites as of March 28, anchor trader consensus for continued action into April, alongside routine responses to Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon and recent strikes on Syrian government infrastructure on March 20 following Druze clashes. The tight race between ≥4 countries (47.5%) and 3 (44.5%) reflects uncertainty over escalation to additional fronts like Iraq's Iran-backed militias—hit by coalition strikes—or Yemen's Houthis, who recently launched attacks on Israel amid threats of broader involvement. Ceasefire talks have stalled amid Israel's warnings of expanding operations through Passover, but a diplomatic breakthrough or proxy de-escalation could cap strikes at 2-3, while fresh proxy barrages might push toward ≥4.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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