Amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes in the 2026 Iran war, now in its fifth week, trader consensus prices exactly three countries at 57.5% implied probability for April strikes, driven by IDF plans extending to Passover around April 5 and recent intensification against Iran—including March 26-27 hits on Tehran military and nuclear targets—while maintaining operations in Lebanon and Syria against Hezbollah and proxies. The 45.5% on ≥4 reflects risks from Yemen's Ansarullah ballistic missile launch toward Israel on March 28, potentially drawing fresh retaliation alongside Iraq militia sites, though US-led ceasefire talks and diplomatic signals from President Trump introduce de-escalation uncertainty that suppresses ≤1 odds to 5.5%. Markets hinge on verified sovereign UN member state strikes before month-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3 59%
≥4 46%
2 27%
≤1 5%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
5%
2
27%
3
59%
≥4
46%
3 59%
≥4 46%
2 27%
≤1 5%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$57 Vol.
5%
2
$1 Vol.
27%
3
$128 Vol.
59%
≥4
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes in the 2026 Iran war, now in its fifth week, trader consensus prices exactly three countries at 57.5% implied probability for April strikes, driven by IDF plans extending to Passover around April 5 and recent intensification against Iran—including March 26-27 hits on Tehran military and nuclear targets—while maintaining operations in Lebanon and Syria against Hezbollah and proxies. The 45.5% on ≥4 reflects risks from Yemen's Ansarullah ballistic missile launch toward Israel on March 28, potentially drawing fresh retaliation alongside Iraq militia sites, though US-led ceasefire talks and diplomatic signals from President Trump introduce de-escalation uncertainty that suppresses ≤1 odds to 5.5%. Markets hinge on verified sovereign UN member state strikes before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
音量
$186終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes in the 2026 Iran war, now in its fifth week, trader consensus prices exactly three countries at 57.5% implied probability for April strikes, driven by IDF plans extending to Passover around April 5 and recent intensification against Iran—including March 26-27 hits on Tehran military and nuclear targets—while maintaining operations in Lebanon and Syria against Hezbollah and proxies. The 45.5% on ≥4 reflects risks from Yemen's Ansarullah ballistic missile launch toward Israel on March 28, potentially drawing fresh retaliation alongside Iraq militia sites, though US-led ceasefire talks and diplomatic signals from President Trump introduce de-escalation uncertainty that suppresses ≤1 odds to 5.5%. Markets hinge on verified sovereign UN member state strikes before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$186終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes in the 2026 Iran war, now in its fifth week, trader consensus prices exactly three countries at 57.5% implied probability for April strikes, driven by IDF plans extending to Passover around April 5 and recent intensification against Iran—including March 26-27 hits on Tehran military and nuclear targets—while maintaining operations in Lebanon and Syria against Hezbollah and proxies. The 45.5% on ≥4 reflects risks from Yemen's Ansarullah ballistic missile launch toward Israel on March 28, potentially drawing fresh retaliation alongside Iraq militia sites, though US-led ceasefire talks and diplomatic signals from President Trump introduce de-escalation uncertainty that suppresses ≤1 odds to 5.5%. Markets hinge on verified sovereign UN member state strikes before month-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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