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地政学·レバノン

How many different countries will Israel strike in April?

Market icon
地政学·レバノン

How many different countries will Israel strike in April?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Dec 31

Mar 31

Apr 30

Dec 31

≥4 50%

3 38%

2 7%

≤1 2.6%

Polymarket
NEW

≥4 50%

3 38%

2 7%

≤1 2.6%

Polymarket
NEW

≤1

$310 Vol.

3%

2

$523 Vol.

7%

3

$811 Vol.

38%

≥4

$1,092 Vol.

50%

This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's multi-front military campaign against Iran and its proxies, launched February 28 alongside U.S. strikes that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and targeted nuclear sites, missile production, and leadership, has already involved airstrikes in at least five sovereign states—Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen—driving trader consensus toward ≥4 countries (49.5%) and 3 (38%) for April. Defense Minister Israel Katz's March 27 vow to "intensify and expand" operations, coupled with IDF Chief of Staff statements on combat plans extending to mid-April Passover amid ongoing Hezbollah rocket exchanges and Houthi missile launches, sustains elevated probabilities for continued strikes. Recent Lebanese strikes killing journalists underscore persistent escalation risks, though diplomatic signals or Iranian degradation could limit targets.

Israel's multi-front military campaign against Iran and its proxies, launched February 28 alongside U.S. strikes that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and targeted nuclear sites, missile production, and leadership, has already involved airstrikes in at least five sovereign states—Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen—driving trader consensus toward ≥4 countries (49.5%) and 3 (38%) for April. Defense Minister Israel Katz's March 27 vow to "intensify and expand" operations, coupled with IDF Chief of Staff statements on combat plans extending to mid-April Passover amid ongoing Hezbollah rocket exchanges and Houthi missile launches, sustains elevated probabilities for continued strikes. Recent Lebanese strikes killing journalists underscore persistent escalation risks, though diplomatic signals or Iranian degradation could limit targets.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's multi-front military campaign against Iran and its proxies, launched February 28 alongside U.S. strikes that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and targeted nuclear sites, missile production, and leadership, has already involved airstrikes in at least five sovereign states—Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen—driving trader consensus toward ≥4 countries (49.5%) and 3 (38%) for April. Defense Minister Israel Katz's March 27 vow to "intensify and expand" operations, coupled with IDF Chief of Staff statements on combat plans extending to mid-April Passover amid ongoing Hezbollah rocket exchanges and Houthi missile launches, sustains elevated probabilities for continued strikes. Recent Lebanese strikes killing journalists underscore persistent escalation risks, though diplomatic signals or Iranian degradation could limit targets.

Israel's multi-front military campaign against Iran and its proxies, launched February 28 alongside U.S. strikes that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and targeted nuclear sites, missile production, and leadership, has already involved airstrikes in at least five sovereign states—Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen—driving trader consensus toward ≥4 countries (49.5%) and 3 (38%) for April. Defense Minister Israel Katz's March 27 vow to "intensify and expand" operations, coupled with IDF Chief of Staff statements on combat plans extending to mid-April Passover amid ongoing Hezbollah rocket exchanges and Houthi missile launches, sustains elevated probabilities for continued strikes. Recent Lebanese strikes killing journalists underscore persistent escalation risks, though diplomatic signals or Iranian degradation could limit targets.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「How many different countries will Israel strike in April?」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「≥4」で50%、次いで「3」が38%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、50¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に50%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「How many different countries will Israel strike in April?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Mar 27, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「How many different countries will Israel strike in April?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「How many different countries will Israel strike in April?」の現在のフロントランナーは「≥4」で50%であり、市場がこの結果に50%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「3」で38%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

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