Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between 13-15 Democratic House incumbents failing to win their primaries (49.6%) and 4-6 (48.5%), reflecting uncertainty after early 2026 primary results in Texas, North Carolina, and Illinois exposed unusually robust challenges to longtime incumbents, especially older ones facing generational change campaigns from progressive and younger contenders. While no major federal House Democratic upsets occurred yet—incumbents survived but with narrower margins than historical norms—the expansive list of well-funded primary challengers signals potential for wider unrest amid party reckoning post-2024 losses. Keeping odds tight are incumbency advantages like name recognition and fundraising edges versus anti-establishment voter turnout; separation could emerge from April-May contests in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York, or June super-primaries in California where battleground districts host high-stakes races.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日13～15 49.5%
4〜6 48.6%
7〜9 24%
3未満 21%
NEW
NEW
3未満
21%
4〜6
49%
7〜9
24%
10〜12
49%
13～15
50%
>15
4%
13～15 49.5%
4〜6 48.6%
7〜9 24%
3未満 21%
NEW
NEW
3未満
$0 Vol.
21%
4〜6
$0 Vol.
49%
7〜9
$0 Vol.
24%
10〜12
$0 Vol.
49%
13～15
$0 Vol.
50%
>15
$0 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between 13-15 Democratic House incumbents failing to win their primaries (49.6%) and 4-6 (48.5%), reflecting uncertainty after early 2026 primary results in Texas, North Carolina, and Illinois exposed unusually robust challenges to longtime incumbents, especially older ones facing generational change campaigns from progressive and younger contenders. While no major federal House Democratic upsets occurred yet—incumbents survived but with narrower margins than historical norms—the expansive list of well-funded primary challengers signals potential for wider unrest amid party reckoning post-2024 losses. Keeping odds tight are incumbency advantages like name recognition and fundraising edges versus anti-establishment voter turnout; separation could emerge from April-May contests in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York, or June super-primaries in California where battleground districts host high-stakes races.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
マーケット開始日： Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
音量
$0マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between 13-15 Democratic House incumbents failing to win their primaries (49.6%) and 4-6 (48.5%), reflecting uncertainty after early 2026 primary results in Texas, North Carolina, and Illinois exposed unusually robust challenges to longtime incumbents, especially older ones facing generational change campaigns from progressive and younger contenders. While no major federal House Democratic upsets occurred yet—incumbents survived but with narrower margins than historical norms—the expansive list of well-funded primary challengers signals potential for wider unrest amid party reckoning post-2024 losses. Keeping odds tight are incumbency advantages like name recognition and fundraising edges versus anti-establishment voter turnout; separation could emerge from April-May contests in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York, or June super-primaries in California where battleground districts host high-stakes races.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
音量
$0マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between 13-15 Democratic House incumbents failing to win their primaries (49.6%) and 4-6 (48.5%), reflecting uncertainty after early 2026 primary results in Texas, North Carolina, and Illinois exposed unusually robust challenges to longtime incumbents, especially older ones facing generational change campaigns from progressive and younger contenders. While no major federal House Democratic upsets occurred yet—incumbents survived but with narrower margins than historical norms—the expansive list of well-funded primary challengers signals potential for wider unrest amid party reckoning post-2024 losses. Keeping odds tight are incumbency advantages like name recognition and fundraising edges versus anti-establishment voter turnout; separation could emerge from April-May contests in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York, or June super-primaries in California where battleground districts host high-stakes races.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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