Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on April 1, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data from central Tokyo stations confirming that peak amid mild southerly flows and increasing cloud cover that limited daytime heating. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models converged on 17–19°C ranges in the preceding 48 hours, with JMA's early-morning update pinpointing 17°C precisely, aligning with typical early-April climatology where highs average 16–20°C under similar pressure patterns. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post-day revision to official JMA records from instrument recalibration or data anomaly could shift this, though preliminary reports carry high authority for market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 1?
17°C 100.0%
18°C <1%
19°C or higher <1%
$248,452 Vol.
$248,452 Vol.
2026/04/01
17°C
100%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
17°C 100.0%
18°C <1%
19°C or higher <1%
$248,452 Vol.
$248,452 Vol.
2026/04/01
17°C
$61,327 Vol.
100%
18°C
$28,708 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$40,442 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on April 1, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data from central Tokyo stations confirming that peak amid mild southerly flows and increasing cloud cover that limited daytime heating. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models converged on 17–19°C ranges in the preceding 48 hours, with JMA's early-morning update pinpointing 17°C precisely, aligning with typical early-April climatology where highs average 16–20°C under similar pressure patterns. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post-day revision to official JMA records from instrument recalibration or data anomaly could shift this, though preliminary reports carry high authority for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$248,452終了日
2026/04/01マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on April 1, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data from central Tokyo stations confirming that peak amid mild southerly flows and increasing cloud cover that limited daytime heating. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models converged on 17–19°C ranges in the preceding 48 hours, with JMA's early-morning update pinpointing 17°C precisely, aligning with typical early-April climatology where highs average 16–20°C under similar pressure patterns. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post-day revision to official JMA records from instrument recalibration or data anomaly could shift this, though preliminary reports carry high authority for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$248,452終了日
2026/04/01マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on April 1, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data from central Tokyo stations confirming that peak amid mild southerly flows and increasing cloud cover that limited daytime heating. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models converged on 17–19°C ranges in the preceding 48 hours, with JMA's early-morning update pinpointing 17°C precisely, aligning with typical early-April climatology where highs average 16–20°C under similar pressure patterns. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post-day revision to official JMA records from instrument recalibration or data anomaly could shift this, though preliminary reports carry high authority for market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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