Hong Kong Observatory's official measurements confirm the highest temperature on April 1 reached 27°C at the Observatory headquarters, solidifying trader consensus at a 100% implied probability for this outcome amid negligible odds elsewhere. This aligns with direct observations from automated weather stations under standard protocols, supported by mild southerly winds, ample sunshine, and seasonal patterns forecasting normal to above-normal temperatures for April amid a projected hot 2026. Pre-event model consensus had anticipated highs near 28°C, but actual conditions yielded slightly cooler peaks. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution, limited to rare data audits revealing overlooked regional maxima exceeding 27°C, though historical precedents show such revisions occur infrequently.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 1?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 1?
27°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$221,180 Vol.
$221,180 Vol.
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$221,180 Vol.
$221,180 Vol.
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 29, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Hong Kong Observatory's official measurements confirm the highest temperature on April 1 reached 27°C at the Observatory headquarters, solidifying trader consensus at a 100% implied probability for this outcome amid negligible odds elsewhere. This aligns with direct observations from automated weather stations under standard protocols, supported by mild southerly winds, ample sunshine, and seasonal patterns forecasting normal to above-normal temperatures for April amid a projected hot 2026. Pre-event model consensus had anticipated highs near 28°C, but actual conditions yielded slightly cooler peaks. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution, limited to rare data audits revealing overlooked regional maxima exceeding 27°C, though historical precedents show such revisions occur infrequently.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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