King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa continues to exercise unchallenged authority as Bahrain's absolute monarch, with traders reflecting this stability in the 87.5% implied probability against his removal by assigning minimal weight to low-probability risks like health crises or dynastic shifts. No recent diplomatic ruptures, domestic unrest, or official succession announcements have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge his position; instead, his ongoing public engagements, including Gulf Cooperation Council summits and bilateral meetings with regional leaders, underscore regime continuity. Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa serves as heir apparent, but absent extraordinary events such as a sudden medical emergency or palace coup—scenarios with historical rarity in Gulf monarchies—trader consensus anticipates no leadership change.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$113,026 Vol.
$113,026 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
はい
$113,026 Vol.
$113,026 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa continues to exercise unchallenged authority as Bahrain's absolute monarch, with traders reflecting this stability in the 87.5% implied probability against his removal by assigning minimal weight to low-probability risks like health crises or dynastic shifts. No recent diplomatic ruptures, domestic unrest, or official succession announcements have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge his position; instead, his ongoing public engagements, including Gulf Cooperation Council summits and bilateral meetings with regional leaders, underscore regime continuity. Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa serves as heir apparent, but absent extraordinary events such as a sudden medical emergency or palace coup—scenarios with historical rarity in Gulf monarchies—trader consensus anticipates no leadership change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 4, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
音量
$113,026終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 4, 2026, 1:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa continues to exercise unchallenged authority as Bahrain's absolute monarch, with traders reflecting this stability in the 87.5% implied probability against his removal by assigning minimal weight to low-probability risks like health crises or dynastic shifts. No recent diplomatic ruptures, domestic unrest, or official succession announcements have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge his position; instead, his ongoing public engagements, including Gulf Cooperation Council summits and bilateral meetings with regional leaders, underscore regime continuity. Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa serves as heir apparent, but absent extraordinary events such as a sudden medical emergency or palace coup—scenarios with historical rarity in Gulf monarchies—trader consensus anticipates no leadership change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$113,026終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 4, 2026, 1:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa continues to exercise unchallenged authority as Bahrain's absolute monarch, with traders reflecting this stability in the 87.5% implied probability against his removal by assigning minimal weight to low-probability risks like health crises or dynastic shifts. No recent diplomatic ruptures, domestic unrest, or official succession announcements have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge his position; instead, his ongoing public engagements, including Gulf Cooperation Council summits and bilateral meetings with regional leaders, underscore regime continuity. Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa serves as heir apparent, but absent extraordinary events such as a sudden medical emergency or palace coup—scenarios with historical rarity in Gulf monarchies—trader consensus anticipates no leadership change.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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