Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74.4% implied probability against a Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting persistent regulatory and political hurdles to exiting FHFA conservatorship despite ongoing recapitalization efforts. Recent stock surges—Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac posting their largest decade gains on March 30 amid Bill Ackman's endorsement as his "best idea for 2026"—have failed to dispel doubts, with shares hitting 52-week lows earlier in March as investors question Trump administration timelines amid rising 30-year mortgage rates near 6.4% and midterm election risks. Michael Burry's view of a 2027 IPO at earliest underscores capital market wariness over net worth sweep legacy and valuation uncertainties, keeping specific market cap outcomes below 5%. Key catalysts include potential FHFA-Treasury filings before Q2 resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2026年6月30日までにIPOなし 87.4%
1,500〜2,000億ドル 4.5%
1,500億ドル未満 2.0%
3,000億ドル以上 1.8%
$187,543 Vol.
$187,543 Vol.
2026/06/30
1,500億ドル未満
2%
1,500〜2,000億ドル
5%
2,000億～2,500億ドル
2%
2,500〜3,000億ドル
1%
3,000億ドル以上
2%
2026年6月30日までにIPOなし
87%
2026年6月30日までにIPOなし 87.4%
1,500〜2,000億ドル 4.5%
1,500億ドル未満 2.0%
3,000億ドル以上 1.8%
$187,543 Vol.
$187,543 Vol.
2026/06/30
1,500億ドル未満
$79,095 Vol.
2%
1,500〜2,000億ドル
$30,098 Vol.
5%
2,000億～2,500億ドル
$18,909 Vol.
2%
2,500〜3,000億ドル
$4,849 Vol.
1%
3,000億ドル以上
$9,857 Vol.
2%
2026年6月30日までにIPOなし
$44,735 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74.4% implied probability against a Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting persistent regulatory and political hurdles to exiting FHFA conservatorship despite ongoing recapitalization efforts. Recent stock surges—Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac posting their largest decade gains on March 30 amid Bill Ackman's endorsement as his "best idea for 2026"—have failed to dispel doubts, with shares hitting 52-week lows earlier in March as investors question Trump administration timelines amid rising 30-year mortgage rates near 6.4% and midterm election risks. Michael Burry's view of a 2027 IPO at earliest underscores capital market wariness over net worth sweep legacy and valuation uncertainties, keeping specific market cap outcomes below 5%. Key catalysts include potential FHFA-Treasury filings before Q2 resolution.
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
音量
$187,543終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74.4% implied probability against a Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting persistent regulatory and political hurdles to exiting FHFA conservatorship despite ongoing recapitalization efforts. Recent stock surges—Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac posting their largest decade gains on March 30 amid Bill Ackman's endorsement as his "best idea for 2026"—have failed to dispel doubts, with shares hitting 52-week lows earlier in March as investors question Trump administration timelines amid rising 30-year mortgage rates near 6.4% and midterm election risks. Michael Burry's view of a 2027 IPO at earliest underscores capital market wariness over net worth sweep legacy and valuation uncertainties, keeping specific market cap outcomes below 5%. Key catalysts include potential FHFA-Treasury filings before Q2 resolution.
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
音量
$187,543終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74.4% implied probability against a Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting persistent regulatory and political hurdles to exiting FHFA conservatorship despite ongoing recapitalization efforts. Recent stock surges—Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac posting their largest decade gains on March 30 amid Bill Ackman's endorsement as his "best idea for 2026"—have failed to dispel doubts, with shares hitting 52-week lows earlier in March as investors question Trump administration timelines amid rising 30-year mortgage rates near 6.4% and midterm election risks. Michael Burry's view of a 2027 IPO at earliest underscores capital market wariness over net worth sweep legacy and valuation uncertainties, keeping specific market cap outcomes below 5%. Key catalysts include potential FHFA-Treasury filings before Q2 resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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