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選挙·プライマリ

CA -04主な受賞者

Market icon
選挙·プライマリ

CA -04主な受賞者

$17,141 Vol.

2026/06/02
Polymarket

$17,141 Vol.

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$6,439 Vol.

96%

Eric Jones

$2,717 Vol.

91%

Trevor Merrell

$6,109 Vol.

20%

Heath Fulkerson

$0 Vol.

8%

Sharon Brown

$0 Vol.

6%

Mandy Ghusar

$698 Vol.

6%

Laurie MacKenzie

$629 Vol.

6%

John Wesley Tyler

$549 Vol.

41%

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) faces a competitive Democratic primary challenge from well-funded Eric Jones in California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, shaping trader focus amid a redrawn district with a slightly narrower Democratic lean following Proposition 50's 2025 approval. The certified candidate list released March 26 confirms nine contenders—two Democrats, six Republicans, and one independent—with fragmented GOP fields historically failing to advance since 2016, raising odds of both Democrats topping the ballot. Recent developments include Jones drawing backlash from prominent Democrats over a deleted post reported March 6, post-filing deadline, while Thompson holds the California Democratic Party endorsement and leads in name recognition. Vote-by-mail ballots mail starting May 4, with no public primary polls yet available to gauge turnout or swing voter shifts in this Solid Democratic seat.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$17,141
終了日
2026/06/02
マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) faces a competitive Democratic primary challenge from well-funded Eric Jones in California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, shaping trader focus amid a redrawn district with a slightly narrower Democratic lean following Proposition 50's 2025 approval. The certified candidate list released March 26 confirms nine contenders—two Democrats, six Republicans, and one independent—with fragmented GOP fields historically failing to advance since 2016, raising odds of both Democrats topping the ballot. Recent developments include Jones drawing backlash from prominent Democrats over a deleted post reported March 6, post-filing deadline, while Thompson holds the California Democratic Party endorsement and leads in name recognition. Vote-by-mail ballots mail starting May 4, with no public primary polls yet available to gauge turnout or swing voter shifts in this Solid Democratic seat.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$17,141
終了日
2026/06/02
マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「CA -04主な受賞者」はPolymarket上の8個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「Mike Thompson」で96%、次いで「Eric Jones」が91%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、96¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に96%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「CA -04主な受賞者」は$17.1Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Feb 26, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「CA -04主な受賞者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている8個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「CA -04主な受賞者」の現在のフロントランナーは「Mike Thompson」で96%であり、市場がこの結果に96%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「Eric Jones」で91%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「CA -04主な受賞者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。