Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar, first elected in 2010 and victorious by 65% in 2024, anchors trader consensus at 87.5% for a GOP hold in Arizona's 9th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report amid an R+15 partisan voting index that delivered Trump margins exceeding 30 points. The district's deep-red lean across western Arizona, including Surprise and Buckeye, combined with Gosar's Trump endorsement and primary challengers like Teresa Volesky posing minimal threat ahead of the July 21, 2026, primaries, sustains this positioning. Democrats face a contested primary with Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward, but lack competitive fundraising or polling to challenge the structural GOP edge, though national midterm dynamics could introduce uncertainty.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
88%
民主党
11%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$522 Vol.
88%
民主党
$779 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar, first elected in 2010 and victorious by 65% in 2024, anchors trader consensus at 87.5% for a GOP hold in Arizona's 9th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report amid an R+15 partisan voting index that delivered Trump margins exceeding 30 points. The district's deep-red lean across western Arizona, including Surprise and Buckeye, combined with Gosar's Trump endorsement and primary challengers like Teresa Volesky posing minimal threat ahead of the July 21, 2026, primaries, sustains this positioning. Democrats face a contested primary with Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward, but lack competitive fundraising or polling to challenge the structural GOP edge, though national midterm dynamics could introduce uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$1,301終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar, first elected in 2010 and victorious by 65% in 2024, anchors trader consensus at 87.5% for a GOP hold in Arizona's 9th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report amid an R+15 partisan voting index that delivered Trump margins exceeding 30 points. The district's deep-red lean across western Arizona, including Surprise and Buckeye, combined with Gosar's Trump endorsement and primary challengers like Teresa Volesky posing minimal threat ahead of the July 21, 2026, primaries, sustains this positioning. Democrats face a contested primary with Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward, but lack competitive fundraising or polling to challenge the structural GOP edge, though national midterm dynamics could introduce uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$1,301終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar, first elected in 2010 and victorious by 65% in 2024, anchors trader consensus at 87.5% for a GOP hold in Arizona's 9th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report amid an R+15 partisan voting index that delivered Trump margins exceeding 30 points. The district's deep-red lean across western Arizona, including Surprise and Buckeye, combined with Gosar's Trump endorsement and primary challengers like Teresa Volesky posing minimal threat ahead of the July 21, 2026, primaries, sustains this positioning. Democrats face a contested primary with Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward, but lack competitive fundraising or polling to challenge the structural GOP edge, though national midterm dynamics could introduce uncertainty.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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