US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia stalled in late March 2026 over Kyiv's refusal to cede eastern territories including Donbas without firm security guarantees, as President Zelenskyy noted on March 26 amid reports of US pressure for concessions. Russia launched its spring offensive around March 24, advancing in Kharkiv Oblast per Institute for the Study of War assessments, while expressing hope for a new trilateral round "as soon as conditions allow" per Kremlin statements on March 26. These irreconcilable demands on territorial withdrawals, frozen lines, and postwar arrangements—echoing earlier pauses amid Iran tensions—underpin trader consensus at 91.5% "No," with no imminent summits despite occasional signals; only major diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation could shift odds by June 30.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$65,290 Vol.
$65,290 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Oui
$65,290 Vol.
$65,290 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia stalled in late March 2026 over Kyiv's refusal to cede eastern territories including Donbas without firm security guarantees, as President Zelenskyy noted on March 26 amid reports of US pressure for concessions. Russia launched its spring offensive around March 24, advancing in Kharkiv Oblast per Institute for the Study of War assessments, while expressing hope for a new trilateral round "as soon as conditions allow" per Kremlin statements on March 26. These irreconcilable demands on territorial withdrawals, frozen lines, and postwar arrangements—echoing earlier pauses amid Iran tensions—underpin trader consensus at 91.5% "No," with no imminent summits despite occasional signals; only major diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation could shift odds by June 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$65,290Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia stalled in late March 2026 over Kyiv's refusal to cede eastern territories including Donbas without firm security guarantees, as President Zelenskyy noted on March 26 amid reports of US pressure for concessions. Russia launched its spring offensive around March 24, advancing in Kharkiv Oblast per Institute for the Study of War assessments, while expressing hope for a new trilateral round "as soon as conditions allow" per Kremlin statements on March 26. These irreconcilable demands on territorial withdrawals, frozen lines, and postwar arrangements—echoing earlier pauses amid Iran tensions—underpin trader consensus at 91.5% "No," with no imminent summits despite occasional signals; only major diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation could shift odds by June 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$65,290Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia stalled in late March 2026 over Kyiv's refusal to cede eastern territories including Donbas without firm security guarantees, as President Zelenskyy noted on March 26 amid reports of US pressure for concessions. Russia launched its spring offensive around March 24, advancing in Kharkiv Oblast per Institute for the Study of War assessments, while expressing hope for a new trilateral round "as soon as conditions allow" per Kremlin statements on March 26. These irreconcilable demands on territorial withdrawals, frozen lines, and postwar arrangements—echoing earlier pauses amid Iran tensions—underpin trader consensus at 91.5% "No," with no imminent summits despite occasional signals; only major diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation could shift odds by June 30.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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