Persistent core disputes over territorial control, Ukrainian neutrality, and security guarantees have stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks since early 2026, with no formal negotiations resuming after disruptions from Middle East developments. Russian positions on maximalist demands remain unchanged, while battlefield dynamics show a grinding stalemate with limited Russian advances offset by Ukrainian deep strikes on energy infrastructure. With roughly two weeks until the June 30 deadline, the absence of scheduled high-level meetings or concessions leaves insufficient time for the complex diplomacy required. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched barriers, though an abrupt shift such as direct leader engagement or rapid battlefield realignment could still enable a last-minute framework agreement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$696,124 Vol.
$696,124 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$696,124 Vol.
$696,124 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent core disputes over territorial control, Ukrainian neutrality, and security guarantees have stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks since early 2026, with no formal negotiations resuming after disruptions from Middle East developments. Russian positions on maximalist demands remain unchanged, while battlefield dynamics show a grinding stalemate with limited Russian advances offset by Ukrainian deep strikes on energy infrastructure. With roughly two weeks until the June 30 deadline, the absence of scheduled high-level meetings or concessions leaves insufficient time for the complex diplomacy required. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched barriers, though an abrupt shift such as direct leader engagement or rapid battlefield realignment could still enable a last-minute framework agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$696,124Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent core disputes over territorial control, Ukrainian neutrality, and security guarantees have stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks since early 2026, with no formal negotiations resuming after disruptions from Middle East developments. Russian positions on maximalist demands remain unchanged, while battlefield dynamics show a grinding stalemate with limited Russian advances offset by Ukrainian deep strikes on energy infrastructure. With roughly two weeks until the June 30 deadline, the absence of scheduled high-level meetings or concessions leaves insufficient time for the complex diplomacy required. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched barriers, though an abrupt shift such as direct leader engagement or rapid battlefield realignment could still enable a last-minute framework agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$696,124Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent core disputes over territorial control, Ukrainian neutrality, and security guarantees have stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks since early 2026, with no formal negotiations resuming after disruptions from Middle East developments. Russian positions on maximalist demands remain unchanged, while battlefield dynamics show a grinding stalemate with limited Russian advances offset by Ukrainian deep strikes on energy infrastructure. With roughly two weeks until the June 30 deadline, the absence of scheduled high-level meetings or concessions leaves insufficient time for the complex diplomacy required. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched barriers, though an abrupt shift such as direct leader engagement or rapid battlefield realignment could still enable a last-minute framework agreement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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