Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 25.5% likelihood, reflecting stalled diplomatic efforts amid Russia's spring offensive and deep disagreements over territory. Zelenskyy recently claimed U.S. security guarantees for postwar Ukraine are conditioned on Kyiv ceding Donbas to Moscow—a charge denied by Senator Rubio—while the Kremlin rejected tying economic cooperation to any settlement. Talks paused due to the Iran war distraction, with both sides claiming frontline advances and no new breakthroughs since February's Geneva meetings. European leaders urged an immediate ceasefire, but ongoing strikes and irreconcilable demands on security guarantees sustain pessimism among bettors through 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$182,644 Vol.
$182,644 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$182,644 Vol.
$182,644 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 25.5% likelihood, reflecting stalled diplomatic efforts amid Russia's spring offensive and deep disagreements over territory. Zelenskyy recently claimed U.S. security guarantees for postwar Ukraine are conditioned on Kyiv ceding Donbas to Moscow—a charge denied by Senator Rubio—while the Kremlin rejected tying economic cooperation to any settlement. Talks paused due to the Iran war distraction, with both sides claiming frontline advances and no new breakthroughs since February's Geneva meetings. European leaders urged an immediate ceasefire, but ongoing strikes and irreconcilable demands on security guarantees sustain pessimism among bettors through 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$182,644Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 25.5% likelihood, reflecting stalled diplomatic efforts amid Russia's spring offensive and deep disagreements over territory. Zelenskyy recently claimed U.S. security guarantees for postwar Ukraine are conditioned on Kyiv ceding Donbas to Moscow—a charge denied by Senator Rubio—while the Kremlin rejected tying economic cooperation to any settlement. Talks paused due to the Iran war distraction, with both sides claiming frontline advances and no new breakthroughs since February's Geneva meetings. European leaders urged an immediate ceasefire, but ongoing strikes and irreconcilable demands on security guarantees sustain pessimism among bettors through 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$182,644Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 25.5% likelihood, reflecting stalled diplomatic efforts amid Russia's spring offensive and deep disagreements over territory. Zelenskyy recently claimed U.S. security guarantees for postwar Ukraine are conditioned on Kyiv ceding Donbas to Moscow—a charge denied by Senator Rubio—while the Kremlin rejected tying economic cooperation to any settlement. Talks paused due to the Iran war distraction, with both sides claiming frontline advances and no new breakthroughs since February's Geneva meetings. European leaders urged an immediate ceasefire, but ongoing strikes and irreconcilable demands on security guarantees sustain pessimism among bettors through 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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