U.S.-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled following "difficult" Geneva sessions in February, with Moscow demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from parts of Donetsk as a precondition—concessions Kyiv has rejected—prompting threats to halt negotiations. Recent pauses amid Middle East tensions were noted on March 19, though Russia expressed hope for resumption "as soon as conditions allow" on March 26. Escalating military actions, including Russia's launch of nearly 1,000 drones against Ukraine on March 23-24 and Kyiv's strikes on Russian oil facilities March 23, signal no de-escalation. Despite U.S. pressure and a lapsed June deadline, unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and postwar arrangements drive trader consensus toward low odds of a signed deal before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$182,644 Vol.
$182,644 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$182,644 Vol.
$182,644 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
U.S.-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled following "difficult" Geneva sessions in February, with Moscow demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from parts of Donetsk as a precondition—concessions Kyiv has rejected—prompting threats to halt negotiations. Recent pauses amid Middle East tensions were noted on March 19, though Russia expressed hope for resumption "as soon as conditions allow" on March 26. Escalating military actions, including Russia's launch of nearly 1,000 drones against Ukraine on March 23-24 and Kyiv's strikes on Russian oil facilities March 23, signal no de-escalation. Despite U.S. pressure and a lapsed June deadline, unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and postwar arrangements drive trader consensus toward low odds of a signed deal before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$182,644Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
U.S.-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled following "difficult" Geneva sessions in February, with Moscow demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from parts of Donetsk as a precondition—concessions Kyiv has rejected—prompting threats to halt negotiations. Recent pauses amid Middle East tensions were noted on March 19, though Russia expressed hope for resumption "as soon as conditions allow" on March 26. Escalating military actions, including Russia's launch of nearly 1,000 drones against Ukraine on March 23-24 and Kyiv's strikes on Russian oil facilities March 23, signal no de-escalation. Despite U.S. pressure and a lapsed June deadline, unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and postwar arrangements drive trader consensus toward low odds of a signed deal before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$182,644Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S.-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled following "difficult" Geneva sessions in February, with Moscow demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from parts of Donetsk as a precondition—concessions Kyiv has rejected—prompting threats to halt negotiations. Recent pauses amid Middle East tensions were noted on March 19, though Russia expressed hope for resumption "as soon as conditions allow" on March 26. Escalating military actions, including Russia's launch of nearly 1,000 drones against Ukraine on March 23-24 and Kyiv's strikes on Russian oil facilities March 23, signal no de-escalation. Despite U.S. pressure and a lapsed June deadline, unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and postwar arrangements drive trader consensus toward low odds of a signed deal before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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