Trader consensus reflects a 99.7% implied probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by stalled US-brokered negotiations paused since early March amid the Iran war and escalating military actions. Russia's spring offensive, launched around March 23 with intensified assaults on Ukraine's eastern defenses including the Fortress Belt, has shifted focus from diplomacy to frontline gains, amid unresolved disputes over territory like Donbas and postwar security guarantees. No direct talks or breakthroughs have occurred in the past month, with recent Ukraine-US discussions yielding only POW exchanges. While late-breaking diplomatic summits or major concessions could theoretically alter outcomes, current escalations and the tight timeline make resolution improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourL'Ukraine signe-t-elle un accord de paix avec la Russie d'ici le 31 mars ?
L'Ukraine signe-t-elle un accord de paix avec la Russie d'ici le 31 mars ?
Oui
$375,300 Vol.
$375,300 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Oui
$375,300 Vol.
$375,300 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus reflects a 99.7% implied probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by stalled US-brokered negotiations paused since early March amid the Iran war and escalating military actions. Russia's spring offensive, launched around March 23 with intensified assaults on Ukraine's eastern defenses including the Fortress Belt, has shifted focus from diplomacy to frontline gains, amid unresolved disputes over territory like Donbas and postwar security guarantees. No direct talks or breakthroughs have occurred in the past month, with recent Ukraine-US discussions yielding only POW exchanges. While late-breaking diplomatic summits or major concessions could theoretically alter outcomes, current escalations and the tight timeline make resolution improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$375,300Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus reflects a 99.7% implied probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by stalled US-brokered negotiations paused since early March amid the Iran war and escalating military actions. Russia's spring offensive, launched around March 23 with intensified assaults on Ukraine's eastern defenses including the Fortress Belt, has shifted focus from diplomacy to frontline gains, amid unresolved disputes over territory like Donbas and postwar security guarantees. No direct talks or breakthroughs have occurred in the past month, with recent Ukraine-US discussions yielding only POW exchanges. While late-breaking diplomatic summits or major concessions could theoretically alter outcomes, current escalations and the tight timeline make resolution improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$375,300Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 99.7% implied probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by stalled US-brokered negotiations paused since early March amid the Iran war and escalating military actions. Russia's spring offensive, launched around March 23 with intensified assaults on Ukraine's eastern defenses including the Fortress Belt, has shifted focus from diplomacy to frontline gains, amid unresolved disputes over territory like Donbas and postwar security guarantees. No direct talks or breakthroughs have occurred in the past month, with recent Ukraine-US discussions yielding only POW exchanges. While late-breaking diplomatic summits or major concessions could theoretically alter outcomes, current escalations and the tight timeline make resolution improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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