Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.7% implied probability for Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by stalled US-brokered negotiations paused since March 19 amid the Iran war and Russia's launch of a spring offensive. Recent military escalations, including nearly 1,000 Russian attack drones over Ukraine on March 25 and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities March 23, underscore active hostilities with no diplomatic breakthroughs. Zelenskyy-U.S. talks in Florida on March 22 focused on pressure tactics rather than final accords, while incompatible demands—Russia's calls for territorial concessions versus Ukraine's security guarantees—persist. With just days left, only an unforeseen summit, major concession, or ceasefire halt could shift odds, though historical patterns show such rapid resolutions rare in protracted conflicts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourL'Ukraine signe-t-elle un accord de paix avec la Russie d'ici le 31 mars ?
L'Ukraine signe-t-elle un accord de paix avec la Russie d'ici le 31 mars ?
Oui
$375,308 Vol.
$375,308 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Oui
$375,308 Vol.
$375,308 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.7% implied probability for Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by stalled US-brokered negotiations paused since March 19 amid the Iran war and Russia's launch of a spring offensive. Recent military escalations, including nearly 1,000 Russian attack drones over Ukraine on March 25 and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities March 23, underscore active hostilities with no diplomatic breakthroughs. Zelenskyy-U.S. talks in Florida on March 22 focused on pressure tactics rather than final accords, while incompatible demands—Russia's calls for territorial concessions versus Ukraine's security guarantees—persist. With just days left, only an unforeseen summit, major concession, or ceasefire halt could shift odds, though historical patterns show such rapid resolutions rare in protracted conflicts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$375,308Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.7% implied probability for Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by stalled US-brokered negotiations paused since March 19 amid the Iran war and Russia's launch of a spring offensive. Recent military escalations, including nearly 1,000 Russian attack drones over Ukraine on March 25 and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities March 23, underscore active hostilities with no diplomatic breakthroughs. Zelenskyy-U.S. talks in Florida on March 22 focused on pressure tactics rather than final accords, while incompatible demands—Russia's calls for territorial concessions versus Ukraine's security guarantees—persist. With just days left, only an unforeseen summit, major concession, or ceasefire halt could shift odds, though historical patterns show such rapid resolutions rare in protracted conflicts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$375,308Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.7% implied probability for Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by stalled US-brokered negotiations paused since March 19 amid the Iran war and Russia's launch of a spring offensive. Recent military escalations, including nearly 1,000 Russian attack drones over Ukraine on March 25 and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities March 23, underscore active hostilities with no diplomatic breakthroughs. Zelenskyy-U.S. talks in Florida on March 22 focused on pressure tactics rather than final accords, while incompatible demands—Russia's calls for territorial concessions versus Ukraine's security guarantees—persist. With just days left, only an unforeseen summit, major concession, or ceasefire halt could shift odds, though historical patterns show such rapid resolutions rare in protracted conflicts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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