US and Israeli strikes in 2025 damaged key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while subsequent IAEA reports through early 2026 documented restricted inspector access and uncertainty over the location and status of Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent. US intelligence assessments as of May 2026 estimate that Iran would still require roughly nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if it chose that path, reflecting sustained disruption to its program. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks have centered on demands for dismantlement and material removal without agreement, and no verified weaponization or test activity has occurred amid continued diplomatic and verification constraints. These factors underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of a nuclear test before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Essai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Oui
$202,342 Vol.
$202,342 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$202,342 Vol.
$202,342 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli strikes in 2025 damaged key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while subsequent IAEA reports through early 2026 documented restricted inspector access and uncertainty over the location and status of Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent. US intelligence assessments as of May 2026 estimate that Iran would still require roughly nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if it chose that path, reflecting sustained disruption to its program. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks have centered on demands for dismantlement and material removal without agreement, and no verified weaponization or test activity has occurred amid continued diplomatic and verification constraints. These factors underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$202,342Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli strikes in 2025 damaged key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while subsequent IAEA reports through early 2026 documented restricted inspector access and uncertainty over the location and status of Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent. US intelligence assessments as of May 2026 estimate that Iran would still require roughly nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if it chose that path, reflecting sustained disruption to its program. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks have centered on demands for dismantlement and material removal without agreement, and no verified weaponization or test activity has occurred amid continued diplomatic and verification constraints. These factors underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$202,342Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli strikes in 2025 damaged key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while subsequent IAEA reports through early 2026 documented restricted inspector access and uncertainty over the location and status of Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent. US intelligence assessments as of May 2026 estimate that Iran would still require roughly nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if it chose that path, reflecting sustained disruption to its program. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks have centered on demands for dismantlement and material removal without agreement, and no verified weaponization or test activity has occurred amid continued diplomatic and verification constraints. These factors underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of a nuclear test before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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