US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear weaponization timeline remains 9-12 months, largely unaffected by recent US-Israeli airstrikes on key facilities, anchoring trader consensus at 91.5% for no nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports highlight ongoing verification challenges but no evidence of active weaponization or test preparations, while Iran maintains its uranium enrichment stockpile below levels signaling imminent detonation. Diplomatic signals, including US-Iran talks on a potential nuclear memorandum ahead of Vienna technical discussions, further reduce escalation risks. Supreme Leader Khamenei's longstanding fatwa against nuclear arms persists amid sanctions and regional tensions, though sudden regime shifts or covert advances could alter this outlook.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Essai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Oui
$191,721 Vol.
$191,721 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$191,721 Vol.
$191,721 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear weaponization timeline remains 9-12 months, largely unaffected by recent US-Israeli airstrikes on key facilities, anchoring trader consensus at 91.5% for no nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports highlight ongoing verification challenges but no evidence of active weaponization or test preparations, while Iran maintains its uranium enrichment stockpile below levels signaling imminent detonation. Diplomatic signals, including US-Iran talks on a potential nuclear memorandum ahead of Vienna technical discussions, further reduce escalation risks. Supreme Leader Khamenei's longstanding fatwa against nuclear arms persists amid sanctions and regional tensions, though sudden regime shifts or covert advances could alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$191,721Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear weaponization timeline remains 9-12 months, largely unaffected by recent US-Israeli airstrikes on key facilities, anchoring trader consensus at 91.5% for no nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports highlight ongoing verification challenges but no evidence of active weaponization or test preparations, while Iran maintains its uranium enrichment stockpile below levels signaling imminent detonation. Diplomatic signals, including US-Iran talks on a potential nuclear memorandum ahead of Vienna technical discussions, further reduce escalation risks. Supreme Leader Khamenei's longstanding fatwa against nuclear arms persists amid sanctions and regional tensions, though sudden regime shifts or covert advances could alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$191,721Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear weaponization timeline remains 9-12 months, largely unaffected by recent US-Israeli airstrikes on key facilities, anchoring trader consensus at 91.5% for no nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports highlight ongoing verification challenges but no evidence of active weaponization or test preparations, while Iran maintains its uranium enrichment stockpile below levels signaling imminent detonation. Diplomatic signals, including US-Iran talks on a potential nuclear memorandum ahead of Vienna technical discussions, further reduce escalation risks. Supreme Leader Khamenei's longstanding fatwa against nuclear arms persists amid sanctions and regional tensions, though sudden regime shifts or covert advances could alter this outlook.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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