US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months, unchanged despite US and Israeli airstrikes on enrichment facilities and potential test sites like Taleghan since 2025's Operation Midnight Hammer. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but no evidence of weaponization or testing activities, with verification access limited amid ongoing conflict. Satellite imagery confirms damage to nuclear supply chains, reinforcing trader consensus that technical barriers, sanctions, and military degradation make a verifiable nuclear detonation before 2027 unlikely, though escalation or covert advances could shift odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Essai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Oui
$189,938 Vol.
$189,938 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$189,938 Vol.
$189,938 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months, unchanged despite US and Israeli airstrikes on enrichment facilities and potential test sites like Taleghan since 2025's Operation Midnight Hammer. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but no evidence of weaponization or testing activities, with verification access limited amid ongoing conflict. Satellite imagery confirms damage to nuclear supply chains, reinforcing trader consensus that technical barriers, sanctions, and military degradation make a verifiable nuclear detonation before 2027 unlikely, though escalation or covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$189,938Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months, unchanged despite US and Israeli airstrikes on enrichment facilities and potential test sites like Taleghan since 2025's Operation Midnight Hammer. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but no evidence of weaponization or testing activities, with verification access limited amid ongoing conflict. Satellite imagery confirms damage to nuclear supply chains, reinforcing trader consensus that technical barriers, sanctions, and military degradation make a verifiable nuclear detonation before 2027 unlikely, though escalation or covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$189,938Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months, unchanged despite US and Israeli airstrikes on enrichment facilities and potential test sites like Taleghan since 2025's Operation Midnight Hammer. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but no evidence of weaponization or testing activities, with verification access limited amid ongoing conflict. Satellite imagery confirms damage to nuclear supply chains, reinforcing trader consensus that technical barriers, sanctions, and military degradation make a verifiable nuclear detonation before 2027 unlikely, though escalation or covert advances could shift odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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