Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, driven by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026 that targeted key nuclear facilities like Natanz, Isfahan, and Taleghan 2, severely degrading enrichment and potential weapons-related infrastructure. IAEA reports from February confirm Iran's stockpile of over 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but note no verified weaponization or testing amid limited access post-attacks. Failed U.S.-Iran talks on April 12 underscore ongoing diplomatic impasse and military pressure, with no public reversal of Tehran's nuclear doctrine. While escalation or regime survival pressures could shift odds, current war dynamics and facility damage make a test highly improbable in the near term.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Essai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Oui
$168,639 Vol.
$168,639 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$168,639 Vol.
$168,639 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, driven by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026 that targeted key nuclear facilities like Natanz, Isfahan, and Taleghan 2, severely degrading enrichment and potential weapons-related infrastructure. IAEA reports from February confirm Iran's stockpile of over 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but note no verified weaponization or testing amid limited access post-attacks. Failed U.S.-Iran talks on April 12 underscore ongoing diplomatic impasse and military pressure, with no public reversal of Tehran's nuclear doctrine. While escalation or regime survival pressures could shift odds, current war dynamics and facility damage make a test highly improbable in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$168,639Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, driven by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026 that targeted key nuclear facilities like Natanz, Isfahan, and Taleghan 2, severely degrading enrichment and potential weapons-related infrastructure. IAEA reports from February confirm Iran's stockpile of over 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but note no verified weaponization or testing amid limited access post-attacks. Failed U.S.-Iran talks on April 12 underscore ongoing diplomatic impasse and military pressure, with no public reversal of Tehran's nuclear doctrine. While escalation or regime survival pressures could shift odds, current war dynamics and facility damage make a test highly improbable in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$168,639Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, driven by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026 that targeted key nuclear facilities like Natanz, Isfahan, and Taleghan 2, severely degrading enrichment and potential weapons-related infrastructure. IAEA reports from February confirm Iran's stockpile of over 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but note no verified weaponization or testing amid limited access post-attacks. Failed U.S.-Iran talks on April 12 underscore ongoing diplomatic impasse and military pressure, with no public reversal of Tehran's nuclear doctrine. While escalation or regime survival pressures could shift odds, current war dynamics and facility damage make a test highly improbable in the near term.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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