Recent US-Israeli strikes have severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow along with related weapons-development sites, leaving the IAEA without verification access since mid-2025 and creating major technical barriers to rapid weaponization. US assessments place the timeline to a testable device at roughly one year even if Iran commits fully, while reconstruction activity at locations such as Minzadayi remains in early cleanup and rebuilding phases. Ongoing diplomacy and demands for verifiable enrichment cuts further constrain near-term escalation. Traders therefore assign only a slim chance of a test before 2027, though hidden stockpiles or accelerated covert work could still alter that outlook if inspections remain blocked.