Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025–2026 destroyed or severely damaged key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, eliminated most centrifuges, killed nuclear scientists, and left enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible or unverified by the IAEA. These setbacks, combined with Iran’s lack of demonstrated weaponization capabilities such as missile-deliverable warheads and command structures, have extended the timeline for any nuclear test well beyond the end of 2026. Ongoing diplomatic signals from Tehran, including offers to dilute 60% enriched material in exchange for sanctions relief, alongside internal debates that have not produced a breakout decision, reinforce trader expectations. A test in the remaining months would require rapid, undetected reconstitution amid heightened surveillance and escalation risks. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or further military action remain the primary variables that could alter the current 95.8% implied probability for no test.