Israeli military operations have escalated sharply in southern Lebanon, with the IDF declaring combat zones south of the Litani River, issuing mass evacuation orders for Tyre and surrounding areas, and conducting repeated airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in and around the city since late May. Ground forces have advanced across the Litani and seized positions north of prior lines, yet no confirmed entry into Tyre itself has occurred amid active U.S.-brokered ceasefire talks in Washington. Traders price a low probability of ground forces entering the city by early June deadlines because urban operations in a densely populated area carry high costs and risks, while diplomatic momentum and the focus on targeted strikes rather than occupation favor restraint. Ongoing Hezbollah rocket and drone activity, plus Netanyahu’s statements on expanding the buffer zone, remain key variables that could shift timelines.