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Monde·Moyen-Orient

Accord nucléaire américano-iranien d'ici le 30 juin ?

Market icon
Monde·Moyen-Orient

Accord nucléaire américano-iranien d'ici le 30 juin ?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Dec 31

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Dec 31

Oui

34% chance
Polymarket

$890,840 Vol.

Oui

34% chance
Polymarket

$890,840 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Indirect US-Iran nuclear talks, mediated by Oman and involving the EU, have stalled after six rounds since April 2024, with no seventh round scheduled before June 30 amid Iran's presidential election first round on June 28. The IAEA's latest June report highlighted Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium exceeding JCPOA limits, prompting US demands for stricter verification that Tehran rejects without full sanctions relief. Supreme Leader Khamenei's insistence on indirect diplomacy and opposition to concessions, combined with US focus on Israel-Hamas ceasefire and election-year caution, underpins trader consensus implying 66% odds against a deal by the deadline, reflecting entrenched barriers despite occasional signals of flexibility.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$890,840
Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Indirect US-Iran nuclear talks, mediated by Oman and involving the EU, have stalled after six rounds since April 2024, with no seventh round scheduled before June 30 amid Iran's presidential election first round on June 28. The IAEA's latest June report highlighted Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium exceeding JCPOA limits, prompting US demands for stricter verification that Tehran rejects without full sanctions relief. Supreme Leader Khamenei's insistence on indirect diplomacy and opposition to concessions, combined with US focus on Israel-Hamas ceasefire and election-year caution, underpins trader consensus implying 66% odds against a deal by the deadline, reflecting entrenched barriers despite occasional signals of flexibility.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$890,840
Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Questions fréquentes

« Accord nucléaire américano-iranien d'ici le 30 juin ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Accord nucléaire américano-iranien d'ici le 30 juin ? » à 34%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 34¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 34% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Accord nucléaire américano-iranien d'ici le 30 juin ? » a généré $890.8K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 17, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Accord nucléaire américano-iranien d'ici le 30 juin ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Accord nucléaire américano-iranien d'ici le 30 juin ? » est « Accord nucléaire américano-iranien d'ici le 30 juin ? » à 34%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 34% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Accord nucléaire américano-iranien d'ici le 30 juin ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.