Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability against a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, driven by stalled indirect talks and Iran's advancing nuclear program. The IAEA's October 2024 report highlighted Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium at 60% enrichment—enough for multiple bombs if further processed—prompting a rare censure and fresh US sanctions on Iranian entities. No bilateral negotiations have resumed since Oman-mediated efforts collapsed earlier this year, amid heightened regional tensions from Israel's October airstrikes on Iranian military sites and ongoing proxy conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. With the US presidential election looming on November 5, policy uncertainty further dampens prospects, as neither candidate signals imminent diplomacy, underscoring significant barriers to any agreement within the timeline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAccord nucléaire américano-iranien d'ici le 30 juin ?
Accord nucléaire américano-iranien d'ici le 30 juin ?
Oui
$895,777 Vol.
$895,777 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Oui
$895,777 Vol.
$895,777 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability against a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, driven by stalled indirect talks and Iran's advancing nuclear program. The IAEA's October 2024 report highlighted Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium at 60% enrichment—enough for multiple bombs if further processed—prompting a rare censure and fresh US sanctions on Iranian entities. No bilateral negotiations have resumed since Oman-mediated efforts collapsed earlier this year, amid heightened regional tensions from Israel's October airstrikes on Iranian military sites and ongoing proxy conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. With the US presidential election looming on November 5, policy uncertainty further dampens prospects, as neither candidate signals imminent diplomacy, underscoring significant barriers to any agreement within the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$895,777Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability against a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, driven by stalled indirect talks and Iran's advancing nuclear program. The IAEA's October 2024 report highlighted Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium at 60% enrichment—enough for multiple bombs if further processed—prompting a rare censure and fresh US sanctions on Iranian entities. No bilateral negotiations have resumed since Oman-mediated efforts collapsed earlier this year, amid heightened regional tensions from Israel's October airstrikes on Iranian military sites and ongoing proxy conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. With the US presidential election looming on November 5, policy uncertainty further dampens prospects, as neither candidate signals imminent diplomacy, underscoring significant barriers to any agreement within the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$895,777Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability against a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, driven by stalled indirect talks and Iran's advancing nuclear program. The IAEA's October 2024 report highlighted Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium at 60% enrichment—enough for multiple bombs if further processed—prompting a rare censure and fresh US sanctions on Iranian entities. No bilateral negotiations have resumed since Oman-mediated efforts collapsed earlier this year, amid heightened regional tensions from Israel's October airstrikes on Iranian military sites and ongoing proxy conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. With the US presidential election looming on November 5, policy uncertainty further dampens prospects, as neither candidate signals imminent diplomacy, underscoring significant barriers to any agreement within the timeline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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