Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations amid escalating military tensions. Recent February-March 2026 talks in Oman and Geneva collapsed without progress, as Iran rejected U.S. demands for permanent cessation or a 10-year suspension, offering only shorter pauses while insisting on its right to enrich. IAEA reports from late February highlighted Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium stored underground at Isfahan, with denied inspection access fueling verification concerns. Ongoing U.S.-Israeli strikes, Strait of Hormuz blockades, and President Trump's extended deadlines for potential energy facility attacks have hardened Tehran's stance, diminishing prospects for a pre-June diplomatic breakthrough despite occasional mediator signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourL'Iran accepte-t-il de mettre fin à l'enrichissement de l'uranium d'ici le 30 juin ?
L'Iran accepte-t-il de mettre fin à l'enrichissement de l'uranium d'ici le 30 juin ?
Oui
$137,219 Vol.
$137,219 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Oui
$137,219 Vol.
$137,219 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations amid escalating military tensions. Recent February-March 2026 talks in Oman and Geneva collapsed without progress, as Iran rejected U.S. demands for permanent cessation or a 10-year suspension, offering only shorter pauses while insisting on its right to enrich. IAEA reports from late February highlighted Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium stored underground at Isfahan, with denied inspection access fueling verification concerns. Ongoing U.S.-Israeli strikes, Strait of Hormuz blockades, and President Trump's extended deadlines for potential energy facility attacks have hardened Tehran's stance, diminishing prospects for a pre-June diplomatic breakthrough despite occasional mediator signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
Volume
$137,219Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations amid escalating military tensions. Recent February-March 2026 talks in Oman and Geneva collapsed without progress, as Iran rejected U.S. demands for permanent cessation or a 10-year suspension, offering only shorter pauses while insisting on its right to enrich. IAEA reports from late February highlighted Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium stored underground at Isfahan, with denied inspection access fueling verification concerns. Ongoing U.S.-Israeli strikes, Strait of Hormuz blockades, and President Trump's extended deadlines for potential energy facility attacks have hardened Tehran's stance, diminishing prospects for a pre-June diplomatic breakthrough despite occasional mediator signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$137,219Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations amid escalating military tensions. Recent February-March 2026 talks in Oman and Geneva collapsed without progress, as Iran rejected U.S. demands for permanent cessation or a 10-year suspension, offering only shorter pauses while insisting on its right to enrich. IAEA reports from late February highlighted Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium stored underground at Isfahan, with denied inspection access fueling verification concerns. Ongoing U.S.-Israeli strikes, Strait of Hormuz blockades, and President Trump's extended deadlines for potential energy facility attacks have hardened Tehran's stance, diminishing prospects for a pre-June diplomatic breakthrough despite occasional mediator signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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