Iran's post-February 2026 leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination, followed by the swift installation of Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC consolidation of authority, has produced a stabilized command structure with minimal signs of active factional rupture. Recent nationwide protests from late 2025 into early 2026 were suppressed, earlier reported internal challenges failed to gain traction, and the June 14 ceasefire agreement—set for formal signing on June 19—further aligns military and political elites around negotiated de-escalation rather than upheaval. Traders price near-certain continuity through June 30 because no verified coup preparations or credible opposition coordination have surfaced in recent weeks. A sudden breakdown in the ceasefire, elite infighting over sanctions relief terms, or large-scale unrest tied to economic fallout could still introduce volatility before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$1,787,719 Vol.
$1,787,719 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$1,787,719 Vol.
$1,787,719 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-February 2026 leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination, followed by the swift installation of Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC consolidation of authority, has produced a stabilized command structure with minimal signs of active factional rupture. Recent nationwide protests from late 2025 into early 2026 were suppressed, earlier reported internal challenges failed to gain traction, and the June 14 ceasefire agreement—set for formal signing on June 19—further aligns military and political elites around negotiated de-escalation rather than upheaval. Traders price near-certain continuity through June 30 because no verified coup preparations or credible opposition coordination have surfaced in recent weeks. A sudden breakdown in the ceasefire, elite infighting over sanctions relief terms, or large-scale unrest tied to economic fallout could still introduce volatility before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,787,719Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-February 2026 leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination, followed by the swift installation of Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC consolidation of authority, has produced a stabilized command structure with minimal signs of active factional rupture. Recent nationwide protests from late 2025 into early 2026 were suppressed, earlier reported internal challenges failed to gain traction, and the June 14 ceasefire agreement—set for formal signing on June 19—further aligns military and political elites around negotiated de-escalation rather than upheaval. Traders price near-certain continuity through June 30 because no verified coup preparations or credible opposition coordination have surfaced in recent weeks. A sudden breakdown in the ceasefire, elite infighting over sanctions relief terms, or large-scale unrest tied to economic fallout could still introduce volatility before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,787,719Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's post-February 2026 leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination, followed by the swift installation of Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC consolidation of authority, has produced a stabilized command structure with minimal signs of active factional rupture. Recent nationwide protests from late 2025 into early 2026 were suppressed, earlier reported internal challenges failed to gain traction, and the June 14 ceasefire agreement—set for formal signing on June 19—further aligns military and political elites around negotiated de-escalation rather than upheaval. Traders price near-certain continuity through June 30 because no verified coup preparations or credible opposition coordination have surfaced in recent weeks. A sudden breakdown in the ceasefire, elite infighting over sanctions relief terms, or large-scale unrest tied to economic fallout could still introduce volatility before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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