Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through repeated anti-corruption purges that have removed potential rivals, including a major 2026 military shakeup targeting top commanders. These actions have concentrated authority further rather than signaling vulnerability, consistent with patterns since the 20th Party Congress. No verified reports indicate organized challenges capable of a coup attempt before the 2027 Party Congress. Trader consensus reflects China's centralized institutions, historical precedent of unfulfilled rumors, and absence of elite fractures or public unrest. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership health developments or cascading policy crises prompting unprecedented defections, though such outcomes face significant structural barriers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$129,724 Vol.
$129,724 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$129,724 Vol.
$129,724 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through repeated anti-corruption purges that have removed potential rivals, including a major 2026 military shakeup targeting top commanders. These actions have concentrated authority further rather than signaling vulnerability, consistent with patterns since the 20th Party Congress. No verified reports indicate organized challenges capable of a coup attempt before the 2027 Party Congress. Trader consensus reflects China's centralized institutions, historical precedent of unfulfilled rumors, and absence of elite fractures or public unrest. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership health developments or cascading policy crises prompting unprecedented defections, though such outcomes face significant structural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$129,724Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through repeated anti-corruption purges that have removed potential rivals, including a major 2026 military shakeup targeting top commanders. These actions have concentrated authority further rather than signaling vulnerability, consistent with patterns since the 20th Party Congress. No verified reports indicate organized challenges capable of a coup attempt before the 2027 Party Congress. Trader consensus reflects China's centralized institutions, historical precedent of unfulfilled rumors, and absence of elite fractures or public unrest. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership health developments or cascading policy crises prompting unprecedented defections, though such outcomes face significant structural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$129,724Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through repeated anti-corruption purges that have removed potential rivals, including a major 2026 military shakeup targeting top commanders. These actions have concentrated authority further rather than signaling vulnerability, consistent with patterns since the 20th Party Congress. No verified reports indicate organized challenges capable of a coup attempt before the 2027 Party Congress. Trader consensus reflects China's centralized institutions, historical precedent of unfulfilled rumors, and absence of elite fractures or public unrest. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership health developments or cascading policy crises prompting unprecedented defections, though such outcomes face significant structural barriers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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