Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, has reinforced centralized command and reduced visible avenues for organized challenge within the People’s Liberation Army and Communist Party elite. Trader consensus at 95.7% against a widely reported coup attempt before 2027 reflects the absence of verifiable fractures or public instability signals since the market opened in November 2025, alongside the regime’s established mechanisms for enforcing loyalty and managing succession. Potential remaining variables include sudden leadership health developments, severe economic shocks that fracture elite networks, or external crises that expose command weaknesses, though none have materialized in recent months to shift implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$129,704 Vol.
$129,704 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$129,704 Vol.
$129,704 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, has reinforced centralized command and reduced visible avenues for organized challenge within the People’s Liberation Army and Communist Party elite. Trader consensus at 95.7% against a widely reported coup attempt before 2027 reflects the absence of verifiable fractures or public instability signals since the market opened in November 2025, alongside the regime’s established mechanisms for enforcing loyalty and managing succession. Potential remaining variables include sudden leadership health developments, severe economic shocks that fracture elite networks, or external crises that expose command weaknesses, though none have materialized in recent months to shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$129,704Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, has reinforced centralized command and reduced visible avenues for organized challenge within the People’s Liberation Army and Communist Party elite. Trader consensus at 95.7% against a widely reported coup attempt before 2027 reflects the absence of verifiable fractures or public instability signals since the market opened in November 2025, alongside the regime’s established mechanisms for enforcing loyalty and managing succession. Potential remaining variables include sudden leadership health developments, severe economic shocks that fracture elite networks, or external crises that expose command weaknesses, though none have materialized in recent months to shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$129,704Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, has reinforced centralized command and reduced visible avenues for organized challenge within the People’s Liberation Army and Communist Party elite. Trader consensus at 95.7% against a widely reported coup attempt before 2027 reflects the absence of verifiable fractures or public instability signals since the market opened in November 2025, alongside the regime’s established mechanisms for enforcing loyalty and managing succession. Potential remaining variables include sudden leadership health developments, severe economic shocks that fracture elite networks, or external crises that expose command weaknesses, though none have materialized in recent months to shift implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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