Xi Jinping has further consolidated authority through sustained military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior generals such as Zhang Youxia for alleged discipline violations, reinforcing party control over the People's Liberation Army and eliminating potential rival power centers. China's opaque one-party system, extensive security apparatus, and historical absence of successful challenges to central leadership underpin traders' 95.8% implied probability against any coup attempt before 2027. The 21st Party Congress in 2027 and ongoing Five-Year Plan implementation provide scheduled opportunities for elite alignment rather than disruption. While sudden leadership health events or severe economic shocks could theoretically create openings for factional moves, verified developments show no such fractures emerging in recent months.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$129,796 Vol.
$129,796 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$129,796 Vol.
$129,796 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping has further consolidated authority through sustained military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior generals such as Zhang Youxia for alleged discipline violations, reinforcing party control over the People's Liberation Army and eliminating potential rival power centers. China's opaque one-party system, extensive security apparatus, and historical absence of successful challenges to central leadership underpin traders' 95.8% implied probability against any coup attempt before 2027. The 21st Party Congress in 2027 and ongoing Five-Year Plan implementation provide scheduled opportunities for elite alignment rather than disruption. While sudden leadership health events or severe economic shocks could theoretically create openings for factional moves, verified developments show no such fractures emerging in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$129,796Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping has further consolidated authority through sustained military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior generals such as Zhang Youxia for alleged discipline violations, reinforcing party control over the People's Liberation Army and eliminating potential rival power centers. China's opaque one-party system, extensive security apparatus, and historical absence of successful challenges to central leadership underpin traders' 95.8% implied probability against any coup attempt before 2027. The 21st Party Congress in 2027 and ongoing Five-Year Plan implementation provide scheduled opportunities for elite alignment rather than disruption. While sudden leadership health events or severe economic shocks could theoretically create openings for factional moves, verified developments show no such fractures emerging in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$129,796Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping has further consolidated authority through sustained military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior generals such as Zhang Youxia for alleged discipline violations, reinforcing party control over the People's Liberation Army and eliminating potential rival power centers. China's opaque one-party system, extensive security apparatus, and historical absence of successful challenges to central leadership underpin traders' 95.8% implied probability against any coup attempt before 2027. The 21st Party Congress in 2027 and ongoing Five-Year Plan implementation provide scheduled opportunities for elite alignment rather than disruption. While sudden leadership health events or severe economic shocks could theoretically create openings for factional moves, verified developments show no such fractures emerging in recent months.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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