Xi Jinping’s prolonged consolidation of authority since 2012, including removal of presidential term limits and repeated anti-corruption purges within the People’s Liberation Army, underpins trader consensus that a coup attempt remains highly improbable through 2026. Recent early-2026 rumors surrounding the investigation of senior military figures such as Zhang Youxia generated brief online speculation but produced no verified challenges to central leadership and were widely viewed as routine internal discipline actions. China’s extensive surveillance apparatus, emphasis on party loyalty over factional independence, and absence of organized opposition further reinforce systemic stability. While sudden leadership health developments or severe economic shocks could theoretically create openings, the current pricing of “No” at 95.8% reflects the low probability traders assign to such disruptions materializing before the 2027 resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$129,839 Vol.
$129,839 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$129,839 Vol.
$129,839 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s prolonged consolidation of authority since 2012, including removal of presidential term limits and repeated anti-corruption purges within the People’s Liberation Army, underpins trader consensus that a coup attempt remains highly improbable through 2026. Recent early-2026 rumors surrounding the investigation of senior military figures such as Zhang Youxia generated brief online speculation but produced no verified challenges to central leadership and were widely viewed as routine internal discipline actions. China’s extensive surveillance apparatus, emphasis on party loyalty over factional independence, and absence of organized opposition further reinforce systemic stability. While sudden leadership health developments or severe economic shocks could theoretically create openings, the current pricing of “No” at 95.8% reflects the low probability traders assign to such disruptions materializing before the 2027 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$129,839Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s prolonged consolidation of authority since 2012, including removal of presidential term limits and repeated anti-corruption purges within the People’s Liberation Army, underpins trader consensus that a coup attempt remains highly improbable through 2026. Recent early-2026 rumors surrounding the investigation of senior military figures such as Zhang Youxia generated brief online speculation but produced no verified challenges to central leadership and were widely viewed as routine internal discipline actions. China’s extensive surveillance apparatus, emphasis on party loyalty over factional independence, and absence of organized opposition further reinforce systemic stability. While sudden leadership health developments or severe economic shocks could theoretically create openings, the current pricing of “No” at 95.8% reflects the low probability traders assign to such disruptions materializing before the 2027 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$129,839Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s prolonged consolidation of authority since 2012, including removal of presidential term limits and repeated anti-corruption purges within the People’s Liberation Army, underpins trader consensus that a coup attempt remains highly improbable through 2026. Recent early-2026 rumors surrounding the investigation of senior military figures such as Zhang Youxia generated brief online speculation but produced no verified challenges to central leadership and were widely viewed as routine internal discipline actions. China’s extensive surveillance apparatus, emphasis on party loyalty over factional independence, and absence of organized opposition further reinforce systemic stability. While sudden leadership health developments or severe economic shocks could theoretically create openings, the current pricing of “No” at 95.8% reflects the low probability traders assign to such disruptions materializing before the 2027 resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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