Trader consensus reflects overwhelming stability in China's political leadership under Xi Jinping, with no verified coup attempts amid ongoing military purges that reinforce rather than undermine his control. Early 2026 rumors of unrest—centered on Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia's removal and absences at legislative meetings—faded without evidence of organized opposition, dismissed by analysts as routine anti-corruption drives within the People's Liberation Army. Xi's recent public engagements, including meetings with Taiwan's opposition leader and directives on energy development, underscore institutional continuity ahead of the 21st Party Congress in 2027. Absent factional fractures or military defections, traders assign just 7.2% odds to any disruption before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$117,198 Vol.
$117,198 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$117,198 Vol.
$117,198 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects overwhelming stability in China's political leadership under Xi Jinping, with no verified coup attempts amid ongoing military purges that reinforce rather than undermine his control. Early 2026 rumors of unrest—centered on Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia's removal and absences at legislative meetings—faded without evidence of organized opposition, dismissed by analysts as routine anti-corruption drives within the People's Liberation Army. Xi's recent public engagements, including meetings with Taiwan's opposition leader and directives on energy development, underscore institutional continuity ahead of the 21st Party Congress in 2027. Absent factional fractures or military defections, traders assign just 7.2% odds to any disruption before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$117,198Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects overwhelming stability in China's political leadership under Xi Jinping, with no verified coup attempts amid ongoing military purges that reinforce rather than undermine his control. Early 2026 rumors of unrest—centered on Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia's removal and absences at legislative meetings—faded without evidence of organized opposition, dismissed by analysts as routine anti-corruption drives within the People's Liberation Army. Xi's recent public engagements, including meetings with Taiwan's opposition leader and directives on energy development, underscore institutional continuity ahead of the 21st Party Congress in 2027. Absent factional fractures or military defections, traders assign just 7.2% odds to any disruption before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$117,198Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects overwhelming stability in China's political leadership under Xi Jinping, with no verified coup attempts amid ongoing military purges that reinforce rather than undermine his control. Early 2026 rumors of unrest—centered on Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia's removal and absences at legislative meetings—faded without evidence of organized opposition, dismissed by analysts as routine anti-corruption drives within the People's Liberation Army. Xi's recent public engagements, including meetings with Taiwan's opposition leader and directives on energy development, underscore institutional continuity ahead of the 21st Party Congress in 2027. Absent factional fractures or military defections, traders assign just 7.2% odds to any disruption before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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