Recent military leadership changes in China, including the September 2026 expulsion of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department Chief Liu Zhenli for factionalism, disloyalty, and discipline violations, have fueled speculation but not shifted trader odds significantly. Official statements frame these actions as internal purges to enforce loyalty and consolidate authority under Xi Jinping, rather than responses to an executed coup plot. Unverified early-2026 reports of a foiled January attempt involving arrests or gunfire remain unconfirmed by credible independent sources meeting market criteria. The opaque nature of Chinese elite politics, combined with the absence of coordinated military challenges or public instability, keeps implied probabilities low through year-end. No major scheduled events, such as party congresses or policy deadlines, are positioned to alter this dynamic before resolution.