Recent military strikes on Iran's enrichment facilities have left key infrastructure damaged or inoperable, with substantial stockpiles of 60 percent highly enriched uranium buried under rubble at sites including Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, severely constraining any near-term breakout capacity before the end of 2026. IAEA inspections remain limited to non-enrichment locations like Bushehr, while diplomatic efforts such as the June 2026 memorandum collapsed without resolving material disposition or restoring full verification. Satellite imagery shows defensive work and limited reconstruction but no evidence of resumed large-scale enrichment or weaponization. Traders assign 95.8 percent probability to no confirmed nuclear device by December 31, 2026, reflecting these physical and access barriers. Residual uncertainty centers on potential clandestine recovery of trapped material or accelerated efforts if NPT debates intensify in Tehran.