US-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, eliminating most centrifuges and rendering sites inoperable, while leaving portions of its 60% enriched uranium stockpile buried or inaccessible in tunnels. The IAEA has had no verification access since mid-2025, confirming Iran is not currently enriching uranium amid stalled diplomacy and demands for capacity reductions. Satellite imagery shows reconstruction and vehicle activity at underground sites like Pickaxe Mountain and Minzadehei through early October 2026, yet these efforts have not restored operational enrichment or weaponization pathways before the 2027 deadline. Trader consensus at 96.8% for no nuclear weapon reflects these structural barriers and historical timelines for reconstitution, though undetected recovery of fissile material, accelerated rebuilding under reduced oversight, or shifts in NPT status could still alter outcomes within the window.