Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and February 2026 have damaged key enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while the IAEA has lost continuity of knowledge over Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and verification access since mid-2025. These setbacks, combined with sanctions and the collapse of a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum, have constrained Iran's ability to achieve weapons-grade material or weaponization on an accelerated timeline before December 31, 2026. Trader consensus at 95.8% for No reflects this damaged infrastructure and persistent monitoring gaps. Remaining risks include potential covert activity at fortified underground locations such as Pickaxe Mountain or a rapid decision to prioritize breakout using unaccounted stockpiles, though structural barriers make confirmation of possession unlikely in the resolution window.