Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran’s enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of the country’s estimated 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium under rubble or sealed tunnels. The IAEA has had no access to key sites since June 2025 and cannot verify stockpile location, composition, or any ongoing enrichment or centrifuge activity. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding aimed at inspections and down-blending collapsed without a final agreement. Satellite imagery shows protective construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain but no operational enrichment or weaponization work. These verified setbacks, combined with continued international pressure and lack of evidence of a political decision to assemble a device, underpin traders’ strong consensus against Iran possessing a nuclear weapon by the end of 2026.