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Politique·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur des élections à l'Assemblée législative du Tamil Nadu

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Politique·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur des élections à l'Assemblée législative du Tamil Nadu

DMK 83%

ADMK 11.6%

TVK 6.2%

AITC <1%

Polymarket

$179,062 Vol.

DMK 83%

ADMK 11.6%

TVK 6.2%

AITC <1%

Polymarket

$179,062 Vol.

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DMK

$19,233 Vol.

83%

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ADMK

$15,722 Vol.

12%

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TVK

$27,155 Vol.

6%

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AITC

$18,827 Vol.

<1%

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CPI(M)

$19,223 Vol.

<1%

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DMDK

$12,329 Vol.

<1%

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BSP

$12,144 Vol.

<1%

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CPI

$0 Vol.

<1%

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INC

$16,186 Vol.

<1%

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NPEP

$12,372 Vol.

<1%

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BJP

$14,668 Vol.

<1%

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NCP

$11,205 Vol.

<1%

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).DMK's commanding 82.5% implied probability as the leading party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election reflects trader consensus on the incumbent's advantages, solidified by recent seat-sharing deals allocating them 175 of 234 seats alongside allies like DMDK and VCK, announced in the past week. Chief Minister MK Stalin's administration leverages popular welfare schemes and organizational strength amid fragmented opposition, with AIADMK at 11.7% hampered by vote-share erosion and perception battles despite its manifesto promises and candidate announcements. Actor Vijay's TVK, at 6.2%, released its full solo candidate list hours ago, potentially splitting anti-incumbent votes without alliance breakthroughs. Mixed opinion polls project razor-thin contests, but nominations starting March 30 and single-phase polling on April 23 heighten focus on DMK's path to retaining power through alliance cohesion and incumbency base rates.

DMK's commanding 82.5% implied probability as the leading party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election reflects trader consensus on the incumbent's advantages, solidified by recent seat-sharing deals allocating them 175 of 234 seats alongside allies like DMDK and VCK, announced in the past week. Chief Minister MK Stalin's administration leverages popular welfare schemes and organizational strength amid fragmented opposition, with AIADMK at 11.7% hampered by vote-share erosion and perception battles despite its manifesto promises and candidate announcements. Actor Vijay's TVK, at 6.2%, released its full solo candidate list hours ago, potentially splitting anti-incumbent votes without alliance breakthroughs. Mixed opinion polls project razor-thin contests, but nominations starting March 30 and single-phase polling on April 23 heighten focus on DMK's path to retaining power through alliance cohesion and incumbency base rates.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).DMK's commanding 82.5% implied probability as the leading party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election reflects trader consensus on the incumbent's advantages, solidified by recent seat-sharing deals allocating them 175 of 234 seats alongside allies like DMDK and VCK, announced in the past week. Chief Minister MK Stalin's administration leverages popular welfare schemes and organizational strength amid fragmented opposition, with AIADMK at 11.7% hampered by vote-share erosion and perception battles despite its manifesto promises and candidate announcements. Actor Vijay's TVK, at 6.2%, released its full solo candidate list hours ago, potentially splitting anti-incumbent votes without alliance breakthroughs. Mixed opinion polls project razor-thin contests, but nominations starting March 30 and single-phase polling on April 23 heighten focus on DMK's path to retaining power through alliance cohesion and incumbency base rates.

DMK's commanding 82.5% implied probability as the leading party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election reflects trader consensus on the incumbent's advantages, solidified by recent seat-sharing deals allocating them 175 of 234 seats alongside allies like DMDK and VCK, announced in the past week. Chief Minister MK Stalin's administration leverages popular welfare schemes and organizational strength amid fragmented opposition, with AIADMK at 11.7% hampered by vote-share erosion and perception battles despite its manifesto promises and candidate announcements. Actor Vijay's TVK, at 6.2%, released its full solo candidate list hours ago, potentially splitting anti-incumbent votes without alliance breakthroughs. Mixed opinion polls project razor-thin contests, but nominations starting March 30 and single-phase polling on April 23 heighten focus on DMK's path to retaining power through alliance cohesion and incumbency base rates.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur des élections à l'Assemblée législative du Tamil Nadu » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 12 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « DMK » à 83%, suivi de « ADMK » à 12%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 83¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 83% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur des élections à l'Assemblée législative du Tamil Nadu » a généré $179.1K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 23, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur des élections à l'Assemblée législative du Tamil Nadu », parcourez les 12 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur des élections à l'Assemblée législative du Tamil Nadu » est « DMK » à 83%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 83% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « ADMK » à 12%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur des élections à l'Assemblée législative du Tamil Nadu » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.